To all those who think Rick Perry has this locked up...

Remember where we were at this point in 2007, from a DailyKos post last week


A couple of the nationwide polls:

Sept. 7-10, 2007: (NBC News)
Rudy Giuliani 32%, Fred Thompson 26%, John McCain 14%, Mitt Romney 11%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Ron Paul 2%, Sam Brownback 1%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Tom Tancredo 1%, None (vol.) 2%, Unsure 6%

Sept. 6-14, 2007: (Harris)
Fred Thompson 32%, Rudy Giuliani 28%, John McCain 11%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 7%, Ron Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Duncan Hunter 2%, Sam Brownback 2%, Tom Tancredo 1%, Chuck Hagel 0%

So if we take the national polls seriously, it sure looks like either Fred Thompson or Rudy Giuliani have the presidential nomination all sewn up in September, 2007! It's impossible that John McCain, who after all had huge fundraising problems and lost both his campaign manager and chief strategist in July of 2007, could be a real contender.

A few statewide polls at this same time four years ago:

Iowa: (Huckabee won the Iowa caucus on 1/3/08)
Sept. 6-10, 2007, LA Times/Bloomberg poll:
Mitt Romney 28%, Rudy Giuliani 16%, Fred Thompson 16%, Mike Huckabee 8%, John McCain 7%, Tom Tancredo 3%, Ron Paul 2%, Sam Brownback 2%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 15%

That's right, Huckabee won the Iowa caucus and he was in fourth place with 8 percent less than four months before.

New Hampshire: (John McCain won on 1/8/08)
Sept. 6-10, 2007, LA Times/Bloomberg poll:
Mitt Romney 28%, Rudy Giuliani 23%, John McCain 12%, Fred Thompson 11%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Ron Paul 5%, Sam Brownback 2%, Undecided 13%

McCain won and he was in third place with 12 percent at this time in 2007.

South Carolina: (John McCain won on 1/19/08)

Sept. 6-10, 2007, LA Times/Bloomberg poll:
Fred Thompson 26%, Rudy Giuliani 23%, John McCain 15%, Mitt Romney 9%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Ron Paul 2%, Tom Tancredo 1%, Sam Brownback 1%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 13%

John McCain won this one too even though he was also in third place, but to a different lineup at this time in 2007.

Moral of the story is don't count your GOP candidates before they're primaried. It's early yet to be making any final predictions.

Which is what will make this such a fun fall.

Enjoy the season,