Ben nerds it up with polls...

Ok, being already an amatuer political scientist (it is my major after all) I have a love/hate relationship with polls. I will be crunching some numbers from polls from the last week that I found on realclearpolitics.com that represents the fluid, if not bizzare, data set I have to work with here. Note ***=important poll/most weight **=somewhat important poll/semi-biased/some weight *=biased poll/little to no weight. Weight means due to poll's circumstances and factoring in how many undecided voters there are in the poll and the MoE (margin of error) which for the sake of my sanity I will put at +/-3, I will adjust the poll according jto my formula after crunching the raw data and compare the unaltered data to my altered data. This should take most of my afternoon but I have nothing better to do

Monday, November 02

New York 23rd District - Special Election
Poll: **Siena Hoffman 41, Owens 36, Scozzafava 6 (undecided
Hoffman +5

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:*PPP(D) Christie 47, Corzine 41, Daggett 11 (undecided 1%)
Christie +6

Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds
Poll:*PPP(D) McDonnell 56, Deeds 42
McDonnell +14

New York 23rd District - Special Election
Poll:*PPP(D) Hoffman 51, Owens 34, Scozzafava 13
Hoffman +17

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:**Quinnipiac Christie 42, Corzine 40, Daggett 12
Christie +2

Sunday, November 01

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:**Monmouth/Gannett Christie 43, Corzine 42, Daggett 8
Christie +1

Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds
Poll:**Times-Dispatch/MD McDonnell 53, Deeds 41
McDonnell +12

Saturday, October 31

New York 23rd District - Special Election
Poll:**Siena Hoffman 35, Owens 36, Scozzafava 20
Owens +1
Friday, October 30

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:***Rasmussen Reports Christie 46, Corzine 43, Daggett 8
Christie +3

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:**Stockton/Zogby Christie 39, Corzine 40, Daggett 14
Corzine +1

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:*Neighborhood Research (R) Christie 42, Corzine 35, Daggett 8
Christie +7

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:***Fairleigh Dickinson Christie 41, Corzine 39, Daggett 14
Christie +2


Thursday, October 29

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:*Democracy Corps (D) Christie 38, Corzine 43, Daggett 12
Corzine +5

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:**SurveyUSA Christie 43, Corzine 43, Daggett 11
Tie

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:*Daily Kos/R2000 Christie 42, Corzine 41, Daggett 14
Christie +1

Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds
Poll:*Daily Kos/R2000 McDonnell 54, Deeds 44
McDonnell +10

Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds
Poll:**Suffolk University McDonnell 54, Deeds 40
McDonnell +14

New York 23rd District Special Election
Poll:*Daily Kos/R2000(D) Hoffman 32, Owens 33, Scozzafava 21
Owens +1

Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds
Poll:**Roanoke College McDonnell 53, Deeds 36
McDonnell +17

Wednesday, October 28

Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds
Poll:***Rasmussen Reports(NP)McDonnell 54, Deeds 41
McDonnell +13

Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds
Poll:**VCU McDonnell 54, Deeds 36
McDonnell +18

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:***Quinnipiac Christie 38, Corzine 43, Daggett 13
Corzine +5

Tuesday, October 27
New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:***Rasmussen Reports(NP) Christie 46, Corzine 43, Daggett 7 (undecided 4%)
Christie +3

Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds
Poll:**SurveyUSA McDonnell 58, Deeds 41
McDonnell +17

New York 23rd District Special Election
Poll:*Minuteman/Neighborhood (R) Hoffman 34, Owens 29, Scozzafava 14
Hoffman +5

New Jersey Governor Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:*PPP(D) Christie 42, Corzine 38, Daggett 13
Christie +4

New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie
Poll:**Suffolk University Christie 33, Corzine 42, Daggett 7 (undecided 18%)Corzine +9

***Generic Congressional Vote Rasmussen Reports Democrats 38, Republicans 42 Republicans +4
This is BIG because usually the generic ballots underpoll republicans by 2-4% so that could actually be a +6-8% which is devestating to democrat hopes to hold on to House leadership

Monday, October 26
New York 23rd District Special Election
Poll***CFG/Basswood Research(R) Hoffman 31, Owens 27, Scozzafava 20 (undecided22%)
Hoffman +4

Breakdown
NJ Governor
10/27 Corzine +9, Christie +4,+3
10/28 Corzine +5,
10/29 Corzine +5, Christie +1, tie
10/30 Corzine +1, Christie +1,+7,+3
11/1 Christie+1
11/2 Christie+2,+6

So since 10/27 there have been 14 polls taken, 4 have Corzine leading by an average of 5%. 9 have Christie leading by an average of 3.3% and one tie. Right now it looks like it SHOULD be a virtual tossup thanks to Daggett siphoning off votes from Christie, unless he pulls a Scozzafava and drops out Christie is going to possibly have to sweat it out until the early morning hours Wednesday. My prediction
Christie 49%, Corzine 43%, Daggett 7% with the remaining going to fringe candidates. The PPP poll today is huge because it leans democratic in its idealolgy so Christie may have a 8-10% point lead which could cause some of his supporters to get overconfident and stay home on election night.

Ok back to work...

Breakdown

VA Governor

10/27 McDonnell +17
10/28 McDonnell +18,+13
10/29 McDonnell +17,+14,+10
10/30 N/A
10/31 N/A
11/1 McDonnell +12
11/2 McDonnell +14

Pretty depressing for Deeds considering Obama actually won this state last year and has had a Democratic govenor for the last 8 years. Since 10/27 8 polls have been released all showing McDonnell with at least a double-digit lead (average 14.5% lead). "Bold" prediction by me, McDonnell wins by a minimum 60-40 due to strong GOP turnout and democratic indifference, leaving the fact that Deeds was probably the worst that the state dems could do for a nominee of the 3 contenders there were. This thing was over before it started. Even Obama essentially gave the middle finger to the Deeds camp. He never stood a shot.

And finally
NY-23 Special Election aka crazy race

10/26 Hoffman +4
10/27 Hoffman +5
10/28 N/A
10/29 Owens +1
10/30 N/A
10/31(Scozzafava drops out) Owens +1
11/1 (Scozzafava endorses Owens) N/A
11/2 Hoffman +17 (from a D poll!) and Hoffman +5

My jaw nearly hit the floor this morning when I saw that Hoffman showed a 17 point lead from PPP. I can't discount it because its a self described democrat poll. My theory is that Scozzafava endorsing Owens turned some of her possible, lukewarm supporters, to switch alligence to Hoffman. She is seen as a turncoat and probably was bribed to do this. My prediction,
Hoffman 57% Owens 38% Scozzafava 5%