Brown ahead in latest PPP poll!!!!!

I so fucking called this one. Remember what I said yesterday?
So lets say for the sake of argument that the trend continued over the next 3 days here and I'll be generous and only slash 2 points from Coakley because I know 2 polls does not a trend make but it's all the data I have available at the current moment. I predict that the next major poll will have the race 48-47% Coakley. Which means its within the margin of error and its basically tied. Will I be right?
Yep, turns out I am, score for me! :)
Senate Race Competitive
Raleigh, N.C. – The race to replace Ted Kennedy in the US Senate is looking like a toss up, with Republican Scott Brown up 48-47 on Martha Coakley.
Brown is benefiting from depressed Democratic interest in the election and a huge lead among independents for his surprisingly strong standing. Those planning to vote in the special election only report having voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by a 16 point margin, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state. That decline in turnout from Obama voters plagued Democratic candidates for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey last fall. Beyond that 66% of Republicans say they’re ‘very excited’ about turning out while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment. Brown leads 63-31 with independents and is winning 17% of the Democratic vote while Coakley receives only 6% support from GOP voters. Both candidates are relatively popular, with 57% viewing Brown favorably to only 25% unfavorable and 50% with a positive opinion of Coakley to 42% negative. Those folks planning to vote in the special election are actually opposed to Obama’s health care plan by a 47/41 margin and only narrowly express approval of the President’s overall job performance 44/43. “The Massachusetts Senate race is shaping up as a potential disaster for Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Martha Coakley’s complacent campaign has put Scott Brown in a surprisingly strong position and she will need to step it up in the final week to win a victory once thought inevitable.” PPP surveyed 744 likely Massachusetts voters from January 7th to 9th. The margin of error is +/-3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
HOLY SHIT HOLY SHIT HOLY SHIT! Not only did I get the numbers right (48-47) I actually underestimated Browns move from 39-50 and 41-50 for Coakley and then a 48-47 Brown lead! WOW, talk about tanking, they say the margin of error is +/-3.6% which means Browns numbers are in the range of 44.4%-51.6% (not bad for a Republican in Massachusetts) and Coakley's range is 43.4%-50.6%. That is huge because that means absolute best case for Coakley is 0.6% over the magical 50%. What might be more telling is this from realclearpolitics.com

Poll Coakley (D) Brown (R) Spread
PPP (D) 47 48 Brown +1

Rasmussen 50 41 Coakley +9

Suffolk 58 27 Coakley +31

Western NE College 58 32 Coakley +26

Suffolk 54 24 Coakley +30

Her numbers were never that far above 50% and I rememeber reading one blogger saying that she wasn't the strongest candidate in the democratic field and got the nomination by default and apathy. Since September Brown has literally doubled his numbers while Coakley has lost 7% of her vote and it stands at a 31 point swing. This is amazing and shaping up to be an upset. Heck at this point I'd say the upset is if the democrats hold on to this seat. Every freaking thing is trending towards Brown, the left is in full meltdown mode. Proof of that in tomorrows post. I need to start being a poll lackey or something, I have been nearly dead on going back to the November elections. I'm not bragging (ok maybe just a little) go back and look at my posts and predictions for the NJ/VA governors race.