MA-Senate seat is in play...

Wow, PPP (Public Policy Polling) has its own blog (on blogspot too) and they are showing some amazing numbers for the MA Senate race... from their blog

Because of the heavy interest we'll try to get our Massachusetts numbers out over the weekend. But because we've already conducted most of the interviews for it here are some of the major storylines we're seeing:

-At this point a plurality of those planning to turn out oppose the health care bill. The massive enthusiasm gap we saw in Virginia is playing itself out in Massachusetts as well. Republican voters are fired up and they're going to turn out. Martha Coakley needs to have a coherent message up on the air over the last ten days that her election is critical to health care passing and Ted Kennedy's legacy- right now Democrats in the state are not feeling a sense of urgency.

-Scott Brown's favorables are up around 60%, a product of his having had the airwaves to himself for the last week. By comparison Bob McDonnell's were at 55% right before his election and Chris Christie's were only at 43%. Coakley's campaign or outside groups need to tie Brown's image to national Republicans and knock him down a notch over the final week of the campaign.\

This has become a losable race for Democrats- but it could also be easily winnable if Coakley gets her act together for the last week of the campaign. Complacency is the Democrats' biggest enemy at this point and something that needs to be overcome to avoid a potential disaster.

This shows a trend...
On January 4th Hot Air reported this...

THE WEEKLY STANDARD has obtained the results of a private poll conducted last week by a reputable non-partisan firm. In that survey, Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley led Republican state senator Scott Brown in the ballot test by 50% to 39%–not bad for Brown in a state Obama carried by 23 points. More interesting, perhaps, is that while Coakley’s favorable/unfavorable rating was 61% to 32%, Brown’s was 56% to 26%–in other words, they were virtually identical at +29/30. That suggests a potentially very competitive race: If Brown can make his case against another Democratic vote in the U.S. Senate, or against rewarding a member of unpopular governor Deval Patrick’s administration, some voters who currently prefer Coakley might be open to voting for Brown, since they view him favorably as well. THE WEEKLY STANDARD has also learned that an earlier poll, done in mid-December by another firm for another client, had similar results in the ballot test–but that the poll also found that the race tightened significantly, down to a low single digits margin for Coakley, among those judged most likely to vote. Furthermore, a careful analysis by Sean Trende shows, that if one assumes a swing against the Democrats like that in New Jersey and Virginia two months ago, the race could become very close.
The next day Rassmussen Reports showed the gap narrowing
Massachusetts Senate: Coakley 50%, Brown 41%
Note this is important because the poll on the 4th had Coakley up 50-39, this shows to me as a amatuer political scientist that Coakley's numbers have topped out and the independents are breaking to Brown. The 50% could be decivingly high though because even though RR polls likely voters that doesn't mean that democrats who might decide to normally show up just say, "fuck it" and stay home or even go radical and vote for Brown out of pure protest. Yes I think the climate is that bad for Democrats right now.
So lets say for the sake of argument that the trend continued over the next 3 days here and I'll be generous and only slash 2 points from Coakley because I know 2 polls does not a trend make but it's all the data I have available at the current moment. I predict that the next major poll will have the race 48-47% Coakley. Which means its within the margin of error and its basically tied. Will I be right? I hope to find out this weekend. Failblog/FML Friday post coming tonight.