Second to last MA-Senate post....

My final post will be Jon Stewart shredding the dems about how they handled this election. He did a great job at it. My favorite line from this, "It's not like the Democrats are playing checkers while Republicans are playing chess; its like the Republicans are playing chess while the Democrats are in the nurses office because once again they glued their balls to their thighs." This is from PPP yesterday...

Raleigh, N.C. – Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in Public Policy Polling’s final survey of the Massachusetts Senate special election, an advantage within the poll’s margin of error.

Brown’s lead comes thanks to an overwhelming advantage with independents and the
ability to pick off a decent number of Democrats. He’s getting the support of 19% of
voters in Coakley’s party, while she is winning just 8% of the Republican vote. The lead with independents is 64-32. Each candidate has seen a large decline in their favorability numbers as the campaign has taken on an increasingly negative tone. Brown’s +19 at 56/37, down 13 points from his +32 (57/25) standing a week ago. Coakley’s now in negative territory at 44/51 after being at a positive 50/42 previously, a 15 point net decline.

Republicans continue to show much more enthusiasm about the election than Democrats,
with 89% of them saying they’re ‘very excited’ to go vote compared to 63% of Dems
who express that sentiment. Brown has a 59-40 lead among voters in that category.
The likely electorate for Tuesday’s election continues to express skepticism about the Democratic health care plan with 48% saying they’re opposed to 40% who support it. President Obama’s approval stands at 44/43. “Brown has a small advantage right now but special elections are unusually volatile and Martha Coakley is certainly still in this,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She just needs to get more Democrats out to the polls.”

PPP surveyed 1,231 likely Massachusetts voters from January 16th to 17th. The margin
of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

I was going to post the polls but here is a summary: Brown +9,+10,+5,+7, and tied. One of them was a Daily Kos poll, take a wild guess at which one... Now for my prediction. I believe Brown will win 57-41 (2% goes to the losertarian candidate). Polls almost always, and I mean always underclock the support of Republicans, Brown is averaged at 52% or so according to the last polls taken and Coakley around 43% so I just add 5% for Brown (due to increased turnout) and Coakley stays where she is. So there you have it 57-41 Brown. Brown wins by 16, 15 minimum.