incompentent House may not even have votes to pass bill on to Senate

Normally all the talk on health care and the bill that is trying to be rammed through is on the Senate and the Nuclear option (aka "reconciliation"). But if it doesn't have a simple majority in the House of Reps the bill is FINALLY DOA. From USA Today...

With each passing day it gets more difficult for the Democrats to pass health care. Literally.

Today, Rep. Neil Abercrombie's retirement takes effect as the veteran Democrat devotes his full time to running for governor of Hawaii. Abercrombie voted for the House bill, so that's one more "yes" vote that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi won't have if she hopes to pass health care using reconciliation.

Neil Abercrombie says aloha to Congress to run for governor of Hawaii, making it harder for Democrats to pass a final health care bill in the House. Abercrombie, a Democrat, voted for the House health care bill, which passed 220-215 in November.

CAPTION

By Susan Walsh, AP

Pelosi has lost three "yes" votes since Nov. 7. The others: Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., who died Feb. 8, and Rep. Robert Wexler, D-Fla., who resigned Jan. 3 to become the head of the non-profit Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation.

The House vote last time was 220-215, so Pelosi will need to persuade some of the 39 Democrats who voted against the House bill to vote for the Senate bill -- which is the first step of a two-step reconciliation process. That won't be easy.

The Senate version includes abortion language and back-room deals, like the infamous Cornhusker Kickback, that moderates find objectionable. Sure, Obama said the extra Medicaid money for Nebraska won't be included in the final bill -- but House members will have to vote for a bill containing the objectionable provisions before they can vote for a bill without them. That could cost Pelosi more votes. Reps. Joseph Cao, R-La., and Bart Stupak, D-Mich., both of whom voted for the House health care bill, have suggested they won't vote for the Senate bill because of the abortion language.

There will be special elections in Pennsylvania and Hawaii in May to replace Murtha and Abercrombie. The general election for Wexler's seat will be in April.

So that means its down to 217-215 by subtracting the 3 yes votes and having two yes votes move to no means its 215-217 which means the bill would be defeated. Assuming liberals hold those 3 seats it would bump back up to passing 218-217 but if even one of those seats flip the bill is dead. It doesn't even look like the Senate is going to get to vote on this. Let the meltdown continue!

Failblog/FML Friday...

here...







only the government...












now some FML...
Today, I got into my first car accident. Extremely upset, I called my parents, because it was their car and I didn't know what to do. I told them what happened, and asked if they were on their way to where I was. My dad's response was "Hell no, we're eating dinner." FML

Today, the girl I like came over to my house to watch a movie. We had seen pretty much every movie that I suggested, so we ended up watching The Lion King. I forgot how sad that movie is, because once Mufasa died I started bawling my eyes out. FML

Today, I turned 22. Instead of cutting my own cake, I stood by and smiled at a friend's belated birthday party. She celebrated her birthday two months ago. She decided to have her party on my birthday. No one remembered mine but everyone got her beautiful gifts. FML

Today, I had to give a presentation about Adolf Hitler. I wanted to point out he was a very good speaker, and could incite a crowd. Instead, what came out was 'Hitler's oral skills made everyone go wild with excitement" FML

Today, I got an invitation to my ex-boyfriend's wedding. We broke up because "he didn't believe in marriage." FML

Today, I had a really big debate in my English Class about the legalization of weed. My group had to state reasons why weed shouldn't be legal and no one except me had prepared. My partner came to class totally stoned. Our group lost the debate. We got a F. FML

Today, I was in Walmart with my mom. I was looking for some CDs I wanted and saw a cute guy. Then he nodded at me and as he started to walk towards me, I hear my name being called over the intercom. Apparently, according to my mom, it was time to go. FML

Today, I had to rub my turtle's anus with a wet Q-tip, which is supposed to help with his constipation. I think he liked it. FML

Today, my mother offered me $1.00 for each piece of asparagus I would eat at dinner. I made $14.00. I am 17 years old. FML

Today, I was working my job as a waitress near my college. I handed a customer her check, and she noticed that I had added her bill wrong. I apologized, and she pointed to my "student" labeled nametag, asking what I was studying. I said English. I'm a math major. FML

Today, I went to the pool. When I hit the water the top of my swimsuit came off so I tried to put it on underwater. The lifeguard thought I was drowning and pulled me out in front of everyone. Topless. FML

Today, at my graduation for my high school GED, my parents said they were getting all my family and my girlfriend together. So we all went out to a steakhouse down the road, everyone ordered steaks. Turns out the 'surprise' was me paying. I only got 50$ grad money, and the bill was 159.98. FML

Today, my very conservative aunt was giving me money. She thought it would be funny to secretly stick it in my pocket like a drug deal. She ended up pulling out my pot. FML

Today, while working at the hospital, I had a patient with a blocked bowel. It was so bad, feces were entering into her stomach. While leaning down to talk with her, she proceeded to throw up. I was both vomited and defecated on at the same time. FML

Today, I was taking a bath and out of boredom started making sheep noises. I then had a conversation with myself in farm animal noises. When I got out of the bath, I walked to my bedroom in my towel, passing the living room... where my little brother's soccer team burst out laughing. FML

Today, I went to watch the Movie "UP." At one point in the movie I got really sad and started to cry a bit. The 7 year old girl next to me noticed and told me to shut and man up. FML

Today, I took a nap with a kitten I just adopted from my mom's house. To make her feel more comfortable, I took a nap with her on my bed. In my dream, I kept smelling poo and I felt around on the bed to find the kitten. She apparently had diarrhea on my bed and I had stuck my hand in it. FML

Today, I checked my bank account that i've been saving money in since I was a kid for college. I have $100 left out of the $10,000 I had last month. Apparently my parents thought buying a pool and an HDTV for themselves was more important than my college education. FML

Today, my cousin and I found out that when a girl puts a flower in the right side of her hair, it means she's available. The bigger the flower, the more available she is. My eleven year old boy cousin told me to "cut down a palm tree and put it in my hair". FML

Today, I discovered my boyfriend of 5 months runs a website where men can submit nude or semi nude pictures of their ex's for revenge. FML

Today, I bought my cat a nice big bag of expensive anti-hairball catfood, so she'd stop puking hairballs on my things. After eating it, she started running around wildly, howling and projectile vomiting on EVERYTHING. FML

Today, I work for a company that sells a leading brand of condoms. They give away free condoms to employees at the office. I haven't gotten laid since I began working here. FML

Today, I decided that I was going to get my front license plate put back on my car after two years of having it off. In these two years I somehow never got pulled over for it, as it is illegal to drive without one in MD. On my way there, I got pulled over for not having a front license plate. FML

Today, I went to a Dodger game with my crush. Between innings, the "Kiss cam" came up on the big screen. The camera happened to land on us, and when my crush saw us on the screen, he leaned away from me and buried his face in his hands. Everyone saw, and sympathetically said "Awww." FML

Today, I was vacuuming my car and started to joke around with my six year old brother by sucking up his shirt and hair with the vacuum. I accidently sucked up his penis. My mom has caught him three times with the vacuum now. I turned my brother into a pervert. FML

Today, I was playing a medieval game with my brother, when he took all of his character's clothes off and said, "Let's have sex!" I looked at him and said, "UH YOU ARE MY BROTHER!" He turns and looks at me, smiling and says, "But not in the game!" I am a 19 year old girl. He is 12. FML

Today, my band had a show. We played a love song, and during the bridge, I ask out a friend of mine who was in the crowd, over the mic, in front of at least 200 people. She said no. FML

Today, In my science class I sit next to my friend Jill. My teacher always gets our names confused caling me Jill & her Liz. She decided to combine our names. I'm now known as Jizz. My teacher clearly has no idea what it means. FML

Today, I went on a date with my boyfriend. Suddenly he starts speaking gibberish. I ask what's wrong? He says, "I was just talking to my unicorn. He says you're pretty," and winks at me. What have we learned today? The person I like is a freak, and apparently unicorns are real. FML

Today, I got my drivers license suspended until I am 18 for driving without a license. Where was I driving to? My last day of Drivers Ed. The high school where I take Drivers Ed. classes at is across the street from my house. I gave up 3 years of driving to drive 100 feet. FML

Today, I had my first appearance in a court as an attorney. I called the prosecution the prostitution. FML

Today, I was smoking in my car and flicked the butt... into the face of a cop on a motorcycle going the other way. FML

Today, I was cleaning out my fiance's room while he was away so we could move into our new home. Not only did I find a few gay nudie mags, but also some interesting love letters from a nice man named Pablo. Apparently I need to do a lot more than cleaning his room to excite him. Like grow a penis. FML

Today, was my senior prom. I've had a crush on my date for months, but after many attempts at grinding with him and sexy seduction, he rejected me saying he was a good Catholic boy. I later found out that not only is he in touch with his religion, but intimately in touch with other boys. FML

Today, I had to water my entire garden. After an exhausting hour of watering hundreds of plants, I turned off the hose and started to feel good about the grueling job. That is, until it started pouring rain. FML

Today, as a prank, my friends put a big bucket of water on my door so that it would spill on me as I exited my room. It would have been funny if I hadn't been holding my $900 laptop as I was walking out. FML

Today, after buying the plane ticket to Glendale, CA to visit 17 year old Courtney who I met on a dating website, she called me for the first time to say that she was actually 19 year old Seth from Atlanta, GA. FML

Today, my dad decided to clean out my car and "accidentally" threw away my $520 tax refund check. FML

Today, I sprained my wrist playing Guitar Hero. The ER doctor called all of his coworkers in to hear my story. They all laughed. FML

Today, it was my high school graduation. Because our school colors were red, black and white, and our principal looked somewhat like Hitler, the senior class prank was to salute him when he finished his speech. I was the only one. FML

Today, I facebooked my friends about my upcoming birthday party, and told them to keep the date free. I got several responses telling me that's not possible, because that's the day the new Harry Potter movie comes out. FML

Today, I got on my flight for my brother's graduation in Portland, Maine. Unable to find my mom in the airport, a stranger overheard my dilemma and informed me I was in Portland, Oregon. FML

Today, I was installing the official 3.0 firmware update for my iPhone. Apple's authentication servers crashed. I now own an iBrick. FML

Today, I had a bath in the bathroom we are currently renovating. There's a big hole in the middle of the floor. When I got out of the bath, I swung one leg across the gap to get a towel from the rack. I drew back my leg and looked down to see my brother's hot friend staring up at me in horror. FML

Today, I went to a restaurant and only brought $14 with me to eat. I ordered and ate my meal, then went to the counter to pay for it. I threw $2 into the tip jar then got my bill. My bill was $13.86. I had to reach into the tip jar and take my $2 back so I could pay for my meal. FML

Today, my girlfriend of 2 months found out she was 4 months pregnant with her ex's baby. She told me I could leave her and she wouldn't blame me, but I decided to stay with her. She told me she loved me and then dumped me because she needed to be with her baby's daddy. FML

Today, all my friends had a huge party and 'forgot' to invite me. They only remembered about me at 2 am when they called asking for rides home because they were all too drunk to drive. FML

Today, my phone died. I plugged it in to charge and then went out to run some errands. When I returned, my phone was no where to be found, and our shovel was on the floor, muddy and wet. I then discovered my 6-year old son had buried my "dead" 200$ palmpilot because he had felt sorry for me. FML

Today, I got pulled over by LAPD because they thought I was drinking and driving. While they were making me walk in a straight line, a bag of weed fell out of my pocket. FML

Today, I left my grandmother's burial to take a midterm. Earlier I e-mailed the professor to ask permission to take it later, and she flat out said "no." I left my grieving family, and traveled hours back to school. I went to class, only to discover that the prof decided to move the exam date. FML

Today, my girlfriend and I were exchanging some naughty pictures. When I was about to send one, I accidently send the picture to everybody on my contacts, including my ex, my boss, and even Pizza Hut. FML

Today, I came home from work and had to pee so badly that I ran to the bathroom and ripped my pants down. My touch screen phone dropped from my pocket and started calling my boyfriend. Since I couldn't quite reach the phone, I left a message of me peeing on his cell. FML

Today, was my high school's senior awards ceremony. Over 400 people were crammed in the hot auditorium. I won five awards and each time I was called up the laughter grew louder. Apparently even the back row could see my pit stains. FML

Today, I found out that the love of my life, who I've been going out with for two weeks only, asked me out because he lost a bet. Apparently I'm the punishment for not being able to eat 10 hot dogs. FML

Today, I recieved a phone call from a cruise line I had travelled on with my parents a year ago. After being told I had won a free $2,000 cruise from a sweepstakes I had entered while on the cruise. After celebrating loudly they informed me that you have to be 23 or older to collect it. I'm 17. FML

Today, my boyfriend and I took a late night drive, and after a while he stopped at a gas station and asked if I wanted anything I replied "guess". He came out and gave me a box of tampons. Apparently I've been bitchy. FML

SOTW #3 You're Goin Down by Sick Puppies

one of those songs I have loved listening to on the radio since this summer and its got a headbanger quality to it with some screamer but its still melodic enough that you know whoever is playing instruments has talent. Oh, and the lead bass is apparently a chick (I didn't know that before I saw the video)

I have a short attention span, and so does Cable News

I was going to give a full recap of the health care bore, I mean negociations, and I fell asleep hard (to the point where I was doing shit in my sleep, apparently) for 3 hours but apparently I didn't miss much because in today's ADD world the cable news networks lost interest almost as fast as I did. From Breitbart...

NEW YORK (AP) - Barack Obama has long seem preoccupied with his presidency's dissection by cable TV talk show hosts. With his health care summit, he effectively became one.

Welcome to the presidential no-spin zone.

Obama put together a production of government in the television age, a health care reality show. He used his platform to direct discussion on the specifics of reform, cut off opponent posturing and make points of his own.

Yet he was only a host—not a producer—and television networks eager to cover it at first lost interest as time went on.

By 2:30 p.m., at the opening of the session's second half, Fox News Channel had shifted to its studio show (occasionally showing a mute picture of the summit on a portion of its screen) and CNN's Wolf Blitzer was reporting on poll results. Both covered it fitfully in the afternoon. MSNBC moved on to the Finland-Sweden ice hockey game from the Olympics. PBS aired "Between the Lions."

Online streaming was the best option for people who wanted to watch the session uninterrupted.

As the program's host, Obama set an agenda and said he wanted to make clear where Democrats and Republicans agree and isolate the issues where there are differences. Democrats seemed intent on showing that in actual policy proposals, "we may be closer here than we really think," said Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa.

Obama struggled to get the politicians away from finger-pointing and toward any serious negotiations.

Like any opinionated cable host, Obama sometimes sharply dealt with those who angered him. One eye-opening exchange came when his 2008 election opponent, John McCain, criticized deal-making that bloated the current health care bill.

"We're not campaigning anymore," Obama told McCain. "The election is over."

On television screens, it harkened back to the presidential debates with cable news showing split screens of the two men. The exchange lit up the blogs.

"Genius!" wrote one Facebook member, Bruce Stevenson.

Tim McKay had a different view on Facebook: "I'm not John McCain fan, but the way President Obama just treated him at the health care summit was in my opinion, about as classless and unprofessional as they come."

The president also criticized Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, the House's No. 2 Republican, for piling a copy of the Senate bill on his desk as a prop to make the point that changes should be simplified. "Those are the kind of political things we do that prevent us from actually having a conversation," he said.

He cut off Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell after the Kentucky senator checked his watch to note Democrats had more speaking time.

"There's an imbalance in the opening statements because I'm the president," Obama said.

Writing with an outsider's view, the Times of London wrote that "watching American politicians argue about health care can be seriously damaging to your health. Symptoms include migraines, extreme fatigue and sudden violent urges."

Cable TV producers have only a limited attention span, and the summit was barely an hour old before MSNBC was muting the sound and interviewing political strategists and talk show hosts about what they were seeing. In other words, they silenced the unusual sight of the nation's leaders in the same room publicly talking about a huge issue so they could present what their pundits were saying about them.

Fox spent the most time presenting uninterrupted coverage before the lunch break. Afterward, the network cut back sharply following it after reporting that its online poll found 90 percent of respondents saying the event was just "political theater."

"I don't think a single mind was changed by watching this," said Fox Sunday host Chris Wallace.

How quickly did Obama's summit become simply grist for the cable talk mill? During one break, CNN's Wolf Blitzer asked Roland Martin that if the summit were part of the Olympics, how would he score it?

"I wouldn't score it," Martin replied. "That's part of the problem. The important thing is that they're talking."

The day's host had his own review, asked how things were going while he walked from the Blair House to the White House during his lunch break.

"I don't know if it's interesting to watch on TV," Obama said, "but it's interesting being a part of it."

What we have to look forward to

You know how some of the idiots on the left say we need a Canada/UK style health care system? Well that lie is being destroyed from the inside, the Times of London today has a headline called:
"Stafford Hospital caused ‘unimaginable suffering’"
damn...
here are some snippets from the article...

Patients were routinely neglected or left “sobbing and humiliated” by staff at an NHS trust where at least 400 deaths have been linked to appalling care.

wow what a great way to start off... screw it here's the rest of the article in full

An independent inquiry found that managers at Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust stopped providing safe care because they were preoccupied with government targets and cutting costs.

The inquiry report, published yesterday by Robert Francis, QC, included proposals for tough new regulations that could lead to managers at failing NHS trusts being struck off.

Staff shortages at Stafford Hospital meant that patients went unwashed for weeks, were left without food or drink and were even unable to get to the lavatory. Some lay in soiled sheets that relatives had to take home to wash, others developed infections or had falls, occasionally fatal. Many staff did their best but the attitude of some nurses “left a lot to be desired”.

The report, which follows reviews by the Care Quality Commission and the Department of Health, said that “unimaginable” suffering had been caused. Regulators said last year that between 400 and 1,200 more patients than expected may have died at the hospital from 2005 to 2008.

Andy Burnham, the Health Secretary, said there could be “no excuses” for the failures and added that the board that presided over the scandal had been replaced. An undisclosed number of doctors and at least one nurse are being investigated by the General Medical Council and Nursing and Midwifery Council.

Mr Burnham said it was a “longstanding anomaly” that the NHS did not have a robust way of regulating managers or banning them from working, as it does with doctors or nurses. “We must end the situation where a senior NHS manager who has failed in one job can simply move to another elsewhere,” he added. “This is not acceptable to the public and not conducive to promoting accountability and high professional standards.”

A system of professional accreditation for senior managers would be considered and the Mid Staffordshire trust might lose its foundation status.

Some NHS chief executives have received six-figure redundancy packages or moved to other trusts despite poor performance. Martin Yeates, the former chief executive at Mid Staffordshire, received pay rises that took his annual salary to £180,000, while standards at the trust deteriorated.

The Liberal Democrats claimed that he had also received a payoff of more than £400,000 after stepping down last March, though Mr Burnham said he had received “no more than his contractual entitlement”.

The Care Quality Commission, the NHS regulator, said that the trust under its new management was now “safe to provide services”. But it still had concerns about staffing, patient welfare, the availability and suitability of equipment at the trust, and how it monitored and dealt with complaints. The inquiry made 18 recommendations for the trust and the wider health service, which the Government accepted in full. They include a new review of how regulators and regional health authorities monitor NHS hospitals and a report on “early-warning systems” to identify failing trusts.

But the families of those who died or suffered poor care branded the inquiry a “whitewash” and repeated calls for a full public investigation. The Conservatives accused ministers of trying to blame managers rather than taking responsibility for problems with national targets.

Julie Bailey, who founded the victims’ campaign group Cure the NHS after her mother died at Stafford Hospital, said that the handling of the scandal was disgraceful and unacceptable.

“It is time that the public were told the truth about the very large number of excess deaths in NHS care and the very large number of avoidable but deadly errors that occur every day.”

The NHS Confederation, which represents health trusts, said: “The responsibility for the way this hospital was run rests with its board, management and staff but, as the report says, the framework of targets, regulatory systems and policy priorities it worked within are also very important.”

If Democrats have their way this is what the US system will look like in 10-15 years. I am watching the summit now and will give a recap once the meeting has adjourned around 3pm or so.

Deconstructing the 2010 Mid-terms

I found this via Hot Air's Allahpundit, this guy is smart and deconstructs polls very well. Also, in the comment section he claims to be a registered College Democrat. Which makes his analysis that much more devestating. Here are some bits and pieces (and graphs) to show how bad it is for dems and could only potentially get worse.

It would take a major turn of events for the Democrats to hold onto the House of Representatives. There I said it. Why the confidence on Republicans gaining 40 seats and getting to the 218 seats needed to control the House?

The generic House ballot is tilting to Republicans in ways not seen... ever. Or as Michael Barone put it, the Republican margin currently seen is "historically unprecedented". To those unfamiliar with the generic ballot, it is the question asked on national surveys that goes something like this "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?" I have often (in my own head) questioned the usefulness of the generic ballot because House elections are held in districts not nationally, and surveys are only getting at most a few respondents from each district for each survey. But the fact of the matter is that vast majority of research indicates (see Charles Franklin, Matthew Shugart, and the Pew Research Center among others) that if you properly use the results from the question, you can get a pretty good idea of what is going to happen.
(he has a bunch of links on his site, I'm not going to put them here)

One of the more interested studies involving the generic ballot was carried out by Joe Bafumi (my introduction to statistics professor and an overall good guy), Bob Erikson, and Chris Wlezien. They found that by "adjusting" (the words of Andrew Gelman who linked to the study) for certain conditions, you can predict the national House vote pretty accurately as far as 300 days out. The basic findings for midterm elections are that Democrats tend to do better on the generic ballot than they do in the actual election (most studies agree on this fact), and that the party out of the White House (Republicans this year) does better than the generic ballot indicates. Both of these discoveries are good signs for the Republican party, and the signs are even better for Republicans when you look at the numbers in detail.
Yay! So how big? The numbers might stun you.

The current Pollster.com (in full disclosure, I'll be an intern at Pollster.com in the spring and summer of 2010) trend estimate has the Republicans with a 1.7% lead. If you allocate undecideds based on how those who already registered a preference say they are going to vote [Republican % of vote / (Republican % of vote + Democratic % of vote)], it's a 2 point Republican advantage (see right). For being this far out in an election (254 days), this lead is the highest since 1946 (when the generic ballot was first implemented by Gallup). What about if we take out all the polls that some Democrats would say are biased against Democrats (Rasmussen and all Republican pollsters)? The Democrats regain a lead of 1%, which readjusted is a 1.2% lead. Folks that number is still the most favorable polling result for the Republicans with . a Democratic President since 1946. Of course, many of the earlier surveys in Bafumi, Erickson, and Wlezien's data set are based off national adult samples from Gallup. So what does the latest Gallup survey of national adults (conducted earlier this month) predict? A 45%-45% tie (readjusted to a 50%-50% tie), which is is also the worst number ever for Democrats this far out with a Democrat in the White House.


How accurate are these estimates? Well, Bafumi et al.'s regression (which takes into account the generic ballot and party in the White House) predicted a 10% Democratic margin over the Republicans in the last midterm election (2006). According to data from the Federal Election Commission, the Democrats won the national House vote by 8.4%. Not a straight on prediction, but not bad either. And if anything, it overestimated the Democratic margin. Such an error should be expected with only 15 case studies (or elections), and a root-mean-squared error (a tool that measures errors in estimate and penalizes for larger errors) of 1.90%. So, these results can be trusted, but with the understanding that some error is involved. Of course with the Republicans in such a good position, the idea that this error takes away from the basic conclusion that Republicans are in a great position is not a wise one.

How will the generic ballot results from 2010 at this point translate into vote in the general election? Based off the Bafumi et al. regression (see page 6), we would expect Republicans to win the national vote by anywhere from 7.3% (all polls but Rasmussen and Republican pollsters) to 9.3% (all polls), which extends well beyond the root-mean-sqaured error. Thus, I have a hard time believing based off the polling that the Democrats will win the national party House vote.

So how will this national house vote translate into seats controlled by the Republican party in the 112th Congress? It's without a doubt a tricky question. One could imagine a scenario where the Democrats lose a majority of the national vote, but maintain a majority thanks to winning many districts by small margins and losing fewer by large margins. Yet, the evidence indicates that this is not a likely scenario. Jonathan Kastellec, Andrew Gelman, and Jamie Chandler did a nice job in a 2006 paper to show that since 1946 the margin between the percentage of the national vote and percentage seats gained by either party shrinks as you get closer to an even split of the national vote. Thus, one would expect that Republicans would win a larger number of seats relative to their popular vote as their lead in the popular vote rises.

With current polling in conjunction with Bafumi et al.'s paper predicting a Republican national vote between 53.6% and 54.7%, the Republicans could easily gain 50-60 seats from their current 178. Gains of greater than 60 seats also look quite possible. Even in the best case scenario for the Democrats, it would seem that holding the House would be very, very difficult.

It looks like a red blizzard is going to sweep through Washington in November.

I can't wait, 60+ might be low depending on how polls play out over the next 8+ months.

Damn... talk about betrayal

"Son of Hamas founder was Israeli spy" wasn't a headline on the Onion (although it seems like it could have been) but the Times of London. This is an amazing article and while a little long it is more than worth the read. This guy is a true hero, he saved thousands, maybe even tens of thousands, of lives by his heroic actions.

The son of one of Hamas’s founding members was a spy in the service of Israel for more than a decade, helping prevent dozens of Islamist suicide bombers from finding their targets, it emerged today.

Codenamed the Green Prince by Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas co-founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, supplied key intelligence on an almost daily basis from 1996 onwards and tracked down suicide bombers and their handlers from his father’s organization, the daily Haaretz said.

Information he supplied led to the arrests of some of the most wanted men by Israeli forces, including Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader often tipped as a potential president who was convicted of masterminding terrorist attacks, and one of Hamas’ top bomb-makers Abdullah Barghouti, who is no relation of the jailed Fatah chief.

Mr Yousef, a 32-year-old convert to Christianity who now lives in California, has revealed the intrigues of his years as a spy in a new book called Son of Hamas, much to the concern of Shin Bet, whose operations will be revealed in detail. While the revelations may give a boost to Israel’s intelligence service, whose external counterpart Mossad is still grappling with the diplomatic fall-out of last month’s Hamas assassination in Dubai, there will be concern that the account may give too many insights into the murky world of espionage.
However, Mr Yousef’s work will be far more damaging to Hamas, whose brutality he denounced. Dubai police have suggested that Mahmoud al-Mabhuh, the top Hamas militant found dead in a hotel room in the emirate on January 20, may have been betrayed by an insider from the Islamist movement itself.

And Mr Yousef had harsh words for the movement that his father helped form, and which now rules the Gaza Strip after a bloody takeover in summer 2007. “Hamas cannot make peace with the Israelis,” he told the daily. “That is against what their God tells them. It is impossible to make peace with infidels, only a cease-fire, and no one knows that better than I. The Hamas leadership is responsible for the killing of Palestinians, not Israelis."

Mr Yousef’s former Israeli handler, identified only as Captain Loai, praised the resolve of his agent, whose codename derived from the colour of Islam – and Hamas’ – banner and from his exalted position within an organization that regularly kills those suspected of collaborating with the Jewish state.

"So many people owe him their life and don't even know it," he said. "The amazing thing is that none of his actions were done for money. He did things he believed in. He wanted to save lives. His grasp of intelligence matters was just as good as ours — the ideas, the insights. One insight of his was worth 1,000 hours of thought by top experts."

Mr Yousef, whose father is still in an Israeli jail cell, from where he was elected as an MP in 2006, went as far as tracking down would-be kamikazes himself in the streets of the West bank during the Second Intifada which erupted a decade ago and left thousands of Palestinians and Israelis dead. On one occasion he followed a bomber from Manara Square in the centre of Ramallah, just north of Jerusalem.

“We didn't know his name or what he looked like — only that he was in his 20s and would be wearing a red shirt," said the former handler. "We sent the Green Prince to the square and with his acute sense, he located the target within minutes. He saw who picked him up, followed the car and made it possible for us to arrest the suicide bomber and the man who was supposed to give him the belt. So another attack was thwarted, though no one knows about it. No one opens Champagne bottles or bursts into song and dance. This was an almost daily thing for the Prince. He displayed courage, had sharp antennae and an ability to cope with danger."

Mr Yousef, who converted from Islam to Christianity a decade ago – in itself, a dangerous act – was arrested by the Israelis in 1996 and within a year had been recruited by Shin Bet, then released to begin working as an informant.

Speaking by telephone from California, Mr Yousef told Haaretz he worried that the Israeli Government might release some of the prisoners he helped put behind bars in exchange for Gilad Schalit, a young Israeli soldier abducted by Hamas from the Gaza border more than three years ago.

“I wish I were in Gaza now," he said. "I would put on an army uniform and join Israel's special forces in order to liberate Gilad Schalit. If I were there, I could help. We wasted so many years with investigations and arrests to capture the very terrorists that they now want to release in return for Schalit. That must not be done."

Breitbart.tv » Obama & Dems in 2005: 51 Vote ‘Nuclear Option’ Is ‘Arrogant’ Power Grab Against the Founder’s Intent

Breitbart.tv » Obama & Dems in 2005: 51 Vote ‘Nuclear Option’ Is ‘Arrogant’ Power Grab Against the Founder’s Intent

Don't you just love old video that really comes back to bite people in the ass? I sure do.

WWII in HD....

The amazing 10-part mini-series on World War II is back on History Channel this week tonight through Sunday and I am going to sit down and watch it (again). What is most amazing, outside of the complete and amazing coverage and footage (all of it in color, interesting note) is the stories of the 12 people that are followed throughout the war. It is very powerful and I personally think the best war documentary ever put on TV. I know some people would say Ken Burns' Civil War was better but I don't think it was. It was interesting but incredibly boring and too long, plus with this series some of the people they follow are still alive today so there is still some connection. And to think everyone of these 12 heros went off to fight the Japs and Nazi's were younger than me. It's really hard to process in today's world what that really means. Some of these stories are heart-wrenching and I won't lie, I was in tears at the end the first time I saw it and I probably will be again. It really is that intense. If you don't have cable or can't sit down and watch it buy it, its $30-40 well spent.

MN-GOP: Emmer Vs. Seifert

This is a big race for governor and apparently according to MDE of the 36 delegate conventions so far 31 have been reported and Tom Emmer and Marty Siefert are for all practical purposes tied, I have no idea how they got those numbers but I trust their numbers nonetheless.

It is important to note however, as MDE did...
Note: These numbers were reported to MDE in a variety of ways. There may be slight differences in the actual totals. However, this should offer a snapshot of where the race stands today. No delegate is bound to a specific candidate and can change their mind at any time.

Dems I DARE you to do this

Normally with this Healthcare BS I have generally avoided talking too much about this because I am so damn sick hearing about it that I don't want to sit down and analyze it. This is not one of those times. The White House has basically come out and said, "If Republicans are going to try and stop us were going to shove it down their throats" via a obscure parlimentary trick called "reconciliation". Short definition of it (don't worry if you don't understand it, I'm a political science major and this shit doesn't make sense to me) Reconciliation is a fast-track legislative process that allows a bill to pass the Senate in a limited time period, and with the support of only 51 Senators. A “normal” Senate bill can be slowed down by a single Senator, and blocked by 41 Senators. This is not true for a reconciliation bill.
That's as simple as I (or more accuratelyKeith Hennessey ) can put it.

Here's the article from an interesting site called "who runs Gov"

In the course of unveiling Obama’s new health reform proposal on a conference call with reporters this morning, White House advisers made it clearer than ever before: If the GOP filibusters health reform, Dems will move forward on their own and pass it via reconciliation.

The assertion, which is likely to spark an angry response from GOP leaders, ups the stakes in advance of the summit by essentially daring Republicans to try to block reform.

“The President expects and believes the American people deserve an up or down vote on health reform,” White House communications director Dan Pfeiffer said on the call.

Pfeiffer said no decision had been made how to proceed, pending the outcome of the summit. But he added that Obama’s proposal is designed to have “maximum flexibility to ensure that we can get an up or down vote if the opposition decides to take the extraordinary step of filibustering health reform.”

Translation: If the GOP doesn’t cooperate with us in any meaningful sense, we’re moving forward on our own.

Also on the call, White House advisers detailed Obama’s new proposal, which was just posted on the White House web site, and discussed the ways it seeks a compromise between the Senate and House proposals. Among the details:

* As expected, the plan has no public option — but this does not preclude a reconciliation vote on the public option later.

* The proposal boosts the threshold for the “Cadillac” tax on the most expensive health plans from $23,000 for a family plan to $27,500. That’s actually a better deal than some labor officials were expecting, though some House Dems will still be angry that the tax is being included at all.

* The proposal also preserves the Senate bill’s state-based exchanges, and does not have a national exchange, as the House bill did.

* However, House Dems will be cheered by the fact that Obama’s compromise closes the Medicare prescription drug “donut hole” coverage gap.

* Also, the bill nixes Ben Nelson’s Nebraska deal and boosts Federal financing for Medicaid expansion in all states.

* And finally, as expected, Obama’s proposal creates a Federal panel to monitor and block exorbitant rate hikes and other unfair practices by the insurance industry.

One final note: On the call, Pfeiffer was careful to note that the proposal is not the product of an agreement between the House and Senate, but rather is “the President’s bill.” This is meant to preclude GOP efforts to cast the proposal as the product of a backroom deal. The lines are drawn.

This is going to get really ugly really fast.

George Will adresses CPAC

It's funny, whenever I am watching Glenn Beck (or Fox News in general) my Dad always states how I should read and watch George Will who is a favorite of his, along with William Buckley (may he rest in peace). Anyway, here he is, the one, the only, George Will

Toyota sez: Dems have it out for them

normally I wouldn't post a business article but this one caught my eye. First off a disclaimer, I love Toyota, I was brought home from the hospital in one (after I was born) and I currently drive one. They are a great car and my Dad, who is very knowledgable about cars, says they are the best made car currently nd it would be hard to argue that, until very recently. This attack on Toyota almost seemes too coordinated, and Toyota execs think so too so I'm clearly not alone in this feeling. From Politico:

Internal Toyota documents derided the Obama administration and Democratic Congress as “activist” and “not industry friendly," a revelation that comes days before the giant automaker's top executives testify on Capitol Hill amid a giant recall.

According to a presentation obtained under subpoena by the House Oversight and Government Relations committee, Toyota referred to the “changing political environment” as one of its main challenges and anticipated a "more challenging regulatory" environment under the Obama administration's purview.

This document, in addition to piles of other records, will be front and center this week as the Japanese automaker girds to face lawmakers hungry for answers about a recall that has the company teetering.

Upwards of 8 million cars have been recalled in the U.S. and worldwide, amid reports of Toyota's vehicles accelerating rapidly. The problems have turned political, as the company has shuttered some American factories, potentially resulting in layoffs.

The oversight committee, which is led by Democrat Edolphus Towns of New York and Republican Darrell Issa of California, will seek to discover if Toyota was forthright in disclosing problems with rapid acceleration – and if the government was responsible and quick in investigating such complaints.

Toyota has launched an image rehabilitation campaign on Capitol Hill, and its top lobbyist has sent e-mails to congressional aides in an attempt to shape its image amid this crisis.

Committee aides say the presentation, which was obtained by POLITICO, gives the clearest view into the minds of Toyota executives.

Aides believe the presentation was an explanatory slideshow prepared to explain the inner-workings of Toyota’s Washington lobbying operations. It includes a responsibility flow chart, in addition to resources the office calls upon, including The Brookings Institution and the Chamber of Commerce.

The slideshow is titled “Toyota Washington, DC” and the cover sheet is labeled “Yoshi Inaba” – the president of Toyota North America, who is slated to testify.

It is a peek into how Toyota executives view the American political environment.

The “Activist Administration & Congress – increasing laws & regulations” is listed as one of “Toyota Challenges,” as is “Massive government support for Detroit automakers.”

The July 2009 presentation also says the Department of Transportation and National Highway Transportation Safety Administration “under Obama administration” is “not industry friendly,” and anticipates a “more challenging regulatory and enforcement environment.”

It says the NHTSA “new team has less understanding of engineering issues and are primarily focused on legal issues.”

“While the administration may have changed, the bureaucracy itself has not and we must ensure that government regulators give every possible consumer concern its due diligence,” said Republican Oversight spokesman Kurt Bardella.

I can't wait for those hearings wednesday, that should be very fun.

FML/Failblog Friday (Sunday edition)

Better late than never...

House Minority Leader Lawrence F. Cafero Jr., R-Norwalk, far right, speaks while colleagues play solitaire on their computers as the House convenes to vote on a new budget for the fiscal year in the Capitol, in Hartford, Conn., Monday, Aug., 31, 2009.

now some FML...

Today, I sprained my wrist playing Guitar Hero. The ER doctor called all of his coworkers in to hear my story. They all laughed. FML

Today, it was my high school graduation. Because our school colors were red, black and white, and our principal looked somewhat like Hitler, the senior class prank was to salute him when he finished his speech. I was the only one. FML

Today, I facebooked my friends about my upcoming birthday party, and told them to keep the date free. I got several responses telling me that's not possible, because that's the day the new Harry Potter movie comes out. FML

Today, I got on my flight for my brother's graduation in Portland, Maine. Unable to find my mom in the airport, a stranger overheard my dilemma and informed me I was in Portland, Oregon. FML

Today, I was installing the official 3.0 firmware update for my iPhone. Apple's authentication servers crashed. I now own an iBrick. FML

Today, I had a bath in the bathroom we are currently renovating. There's a big hole in the middle of the floor. When I got out of the bath, I swung one leg across the gap to get a towel from the rack. I drew back my leg and looked down to see my brother's hot friend staring up at me in horror. FML

Today, I went to a restaurant and only brought $14 with me to eat. I ordered and ate my meal, then went to the counter to pay for it. I threw $2 into the tip jar then got my bill. My bill was $13.86. I had to reach into the tip jar and take my $2 back so I could pay for my meal. FML

Today, my girlfriend of 2 months found out she was 4 months pregnant with her ex's baby. She told me I could leave her and she wouldn't blame me, but I decided to stay with her. She told me she loved me and then dumped me because she needed to be with her baby's daddy. FML

Today, all my friends had a huge party and 'forgot' to invite me. They only remembered about me at 2 am when they called asking for rides home because they were all too drunk to drive. FML

Today, my phone died. I plugged it in to charge and then went out to run some errands. When I returned, my phone was no where to be found, and our shovel was on the floor, muddy and wet. I then discovered my 6-year old son had buried my "dead" 200$ palmpilot because he had felt sorry for me. FML

Today, I got pulled over by LAPD because they thought I was drinking and driving. While they were making me walk in a straight line, a bag of weed fell out of my pocket. FML

Today, I left my grandmother's burial to take a midterm. Earlier I e-mailed the professor to ask permission to take it later, and she flat out said "no." I left my grieving family, and traveled hours back to school. I went to class, only to discover that the prof decided to move the exam date. FML

Today, my girlfriend and I were exchanging some naughty pictures. When I was about to send one, I accidently send the picture to everybody on my contacts, including my ex, my boss, and even Pizza Hut. FML

Today, I came home from work and had to pee so badly that I ran to the bathroom and ripped my pants down. My touch screen phone dropped from my pocket and started calling my boyfriend. Since I couldn't quite reach the phone, I left a message of me peeing on his cell. FML

Today, was my high school's senior awards ceremony. Over 400 people were crammed in the hot auditorium. I won five awards and each time I was called up the laughter grew louder. Apparently even the back row could see my pit stains. FML

Today, I found out that the love of my life, who I've been going out with for two weeks only, asked me out because he lost a bet. Apparently I'm the punishment for not being able to eat 10 hot dogs. FML

Today, I recieved a phone call from a cruise line I had travelled on with my parents a year ago. After being told I had won a free $2,000 cruise from a sweepstakes I had entered while on the cruise. After celebrating loudly they informed me that you have to be 23 or older to collect it. I'm 17. FML

Today, my boyfriend and I took a late night drive, and after a while he stopped at a gas station and asked if I wanted anything I replied "guess". He came out and gave me a box of tampons. Apparently I've been bitchy. FML

Today, while reading some chemistry notes I came across the term "solid water". Completely stumped, I asked myself "what the hell is solid water??". Then I heard my little cousin say "ice". I'm a 4th year science major in university. He still checks the closet for monsters. FML

Today, I got an invitation in the mail for my dad's third wedding. My first name was misspelled on the envelope. FML

Today, my car was impounded because I never registered it in California after moving here. In order to get it back, I need to register it. In order to register it, I need to pass a CA smog check. In order to pass the smog check, I need my car. FML

Today, I am currently grounded for three weeks, have no car, cell phone, or television privileges, and am not allowed to spend more than 10 minutes on the computer a day. The reason why: I was seven minutes past my 9'oclock curfew. I'm 18. FML

Today, I enlisted for The Navy because my Boy Scout leader encouraged me. He fought in Korea and is a real inspiration. I asked him what motivated him to join The Navy. He said he was drunk and didn't remember joining until he was called up. FML

Today, my friend said he'd give me 20 bucks if I would ask out the ugliest girl in school. I did it. She rejected me. FML

Today, I was texting a friend of mine. She mentioned it was her dad's birthday. I typed "Tell him Happy Birthday for me!" and as I pressed send I remember her dad was dead. FML

Today, I rushed home to tell my parents my girlfriend had accepted my proposal. They asked how I could be so selfish at a time like this. Apparently, Michael Jackson's death is more important than their son. FML

Today, my brother and I were going to give our parents their anniversary gift which cost us over $3000. The gift was a trip to London in August to see a show on Michael Jackson's comeback tour. FML

Today, at the airport, my mom began talking about how useless the war in Iraq was, and how dumb the soldiers that serve there were for enlisting during the war. The soldier at the vending machine near us's eyes met mine. I mouthed, "Sorry." and he mouthed, slowly, "You fuckin' better be.". FML

Today, I finally cracked the password on my husband's email account. I don't know what's worse finding out your husband is cheating on you with several people or discovering his password includes is ex-girlfriend's name. FML

Today, I had my first kiss standing in front of my front door. It was really cute, the way you normally think about first kisses. When I got inside, I realized my mom had been watching out her second story bedroom window taking pictures. She put them on Facebook captioned 'My baby's first kiss!' FML

Today, I took a shower after I finished typing an important essay I've been working on for days. My computer illiterate mum shut the computer down when I was gone, without saving a thing. When I confronted her, she yelled at me for "wasting electricity". FML

Today, I got a facebook relationship request from my crush of 2 and a half years. I was so excited until he posted on my wall, "Sorry wrong Catherine". FML
Today, I finally got the courage to tell my parents that I'm gay. My mom said "Yeah, we know." When I asked how they knew, my dad, without looking up from the tv, said, "We've been monitoring your Internet history." FML

Today, my girlfriend missed our date, so I text her angry, telling her if she can't make our dates then we should break up, and generally telling her off. 5 Minutes later I get a picture message of her sleeping in a hospital bed from her mother saying "Shut the **** up, she had appendicitis." FML

Today, my parents booked my 18th birthday party at Chuck E Cheese's. FML

Today, I finally hooked up with the boy of my dreams at a party. Later, while on aim, I noticed one of his friends away messages was a quote from the guy's screen name, which said "I can't believe what I stick my d... In sometimes." FML

Today, I logged on to MSN for the first time in a month. In under 10 minutes, I found out that my little sister had changed my screen name to Jake the Weiner, told my friend that he should "suck my d***" and sent an email to all my contacts declaring my love for my best friend. FML

Today, I decided I was going to bleach my bikini line, as I have not been able to shave there due to some ingrown hairs, and I also have to lifeguard every day. As it turns out, I'm allergic to the bleach. There is now an angry red, burning rash on my crotch that you can see around my swimsuit. FML

Today, I was chatting with an amazing guy online. He was perfect for me. After five hours he told me he loved me and I said it back. So than we decided to trade nudes. I sent mine. Within two seconds my niece calls, laughing her ass off, telling me how weird my birthmark is. FML

Today, while watching The Many Adventures of Winnie-the-Pooh with my 5 year old, I realized why the kangaroo's name is Kanga, and why her son's name is Roo. Kanga-Roo. Get it? Yeah. I didn't until today. I'm 47. FML

Today, I went to the doctor. I told her I felt down all the time. She asked me a few questions and she told me I was depressed. She suggested to go home and find the sources of my depression. When I told my parents, they started laughing and said "Yeah, right." I think I found my source. FML

Today, I was helping my friend with her little sister's birthday party. We were playing a game where you get up and switch seats if you've done a certain thing. One girl said to switch if you've kissed a boy. I watched as 18 12-year-olds switched seats with each other. I stayed sitting. I'm 17. FML

Today, I noticed a string was following behind our family cat. After close inspection I realized it was a plastic kite string he partially digested. I had to pull the other three feet of plastic kite tail from his rectum. He purred the entire time. FML

Today, I found out that my boyfriend is cheating on me, with the same guy I was cheating on him with. FML

Today, I was coming home from a date, I saw my ex standing in my drive-way. He had dumped me 2 months ago saying he couldn't talk me. To make him jealous, I made out with my new guy before greeting him. Turns out he couldn't talk to me because he had had cancer and had been afraid to tell me. FML

Today, I found out why my girlfriend of 8 months has never agreed to stay the night before. Now I have a 4-month old mattress that needs replacing, and a 23-year-old bedwetter for a girlfriend. FML

Today, while on a run, I thought I'd run into a flock of geese in a field. Doing so, I learned that when you do this alone, the birds don't fly away, they attack. FML

Today, I went to the drug store to pick up some Monistat for a yeast infection. As I was leaving the store, the security alarm went off. The attractive security guard asked to see my receipt, smiled, told me I looked nice, so I handed him the receipt. His face then abruptly changed to a look of disgust. FML

Today, I come home to find my nephew holding pieces of my new $3,500 Sony Video Camera. He told me he threw it out the window because it was a portal for aliens. FML

Today, I gave the option to my boyfriend of 5 years to either quit World of Warcraft of lose me. He said WOW makes him happier. FML

NO NO NO, FUCK NOT GOOD

very rarely does a news story illict this type of response from me. But when you get a story that only enforces a sterotype of the far right and is splashed all over the front pages (as this will be, just like the Tiller murder) and at the same time knocks of a just as significant story about a shooting by a far-left nut professor that is practically blacked out by the media, I will "meltdown" here is the story...

A small single-engine plane crashed into a seven-story office building in Austin, Texas, around 10 a.m. local time Thursday.

sounds innocent enough, relatively... planes crash into buildings all the time right? (for God's sake if you don't detect sarcasm there please stop reading and go back to DemUnderground or DailyKos)

An NTSB official told Fox News that they are investigating this as an intentional act, and said it appears the pilot set his own house on fire and then got in his plane and flew it into the building. An NTSB spokesman, however, told FoxNews.com that "we can't confirm any of that."

Ok, so we got a nut, but you got to wait for it... why would a guy go all kamakazie on the situation did life suck or something? Well maybe but as you find out a few lines down...

An Internal Revenue Service office is located inside the building.

Oh great, that's just fucking great. Now this guy will come to represent all Tea Party people because the left loves guilt by association. God forbid if anyone has footage of this nut at a tea party protest. All of us who believe in this movement need to get out there and condemn (even though we shouldn't have to) this nut. He DOES NOT represent us. Expect a massive backlash and a scathing commentary by Keith Oblerdouche tonight (not that anyone will care because no one watches him anymore). But really flying a plane into a building? Apparently this guy needed some massive help and didn't get it or didn't want it. This is the beginning of a massive shit storm.

Song of the week #2-Nickelback - How You Remind Me

This song holds a special place in me and will forever because it is the first real rock song I ever listened to and got into. Back in 2002 (or 2003 I forget honestly) Nickleback and Linkin Park got me into hard/alt/metal rock and I've never looked back minus a few guilty pleasures. It was one of those transformational songs for me because I never really turned the radio to FM until 2002 when I couldn't take anymore talk about 9/11 on the AM dial (I am unusual, I know, you don't need to tell me) and when I did I ended up listening to crap rock and pop in the beginning, now this is all I listen to.

Evan Bayh: I quit (sort of)

very rarely does something in the world of politics cause my jaw to (figuratively) hit the floor which happened earlier today with Evan Bayh announcing he won't seek re-election despite a 20 point lead (in some polls) and a $13 million war chest. To say this is stunning is an understatement and actually means that a 50-50 senate is possible (I'd say a 40-45% chance now, up from 25-30% before the Bayh announcement) with the possible foil being Joe Libermann (won't that be fun for dems). There is also talk that Bayh could be a center challenge in the 2012 primaries to Obama, its not inconcievable that Obama could have a center and a nutty far-left challenge (see Howard Dean) to deal with, from the WaPo opinion section
(sidenote: on the take this job and shove it line I have actually done that, actually I told her to and I quote, "go fuck herself and rot in hell, it was so awesome)

Millions of Americans long to tell their bosses “take this job and shove it.” Hardly any have the power and money to do so, especially in these recessionary times. Sen. Evan Bayh (D) of Indiana, however, is the exception. His stunning retirement from the Senate is essentially a loud and emphatic “screw you” to President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. For months now, Bayh has been screaming at the top of his voice that the party needs to reorient toward a more popular, centrist agenda -- one that emphasizes jobs and fiscal responsibility over health care and cap and trade. Neither the White House nor the Senate leadership has given him the response he wanted. Their bungling of what should have been a routine bipartisan jobs bill last week seems to have been the last straw.

I don’t doubt that Bayh could have won re-election -- though he probably did not relish the prospect of a very nasty campaign revolving around GOP attacks on his wife’s business activities. Let it never be forgotten that Bayh is a perennial Democratic golden boy, the keynote speaker at the party’s 1996 convention, scion of a political dynasty, proven vote-getter in a red state and, in his own mind, prime presidential timber. For him, then, the question was: even if I win, who needs six more years of dealing with these people, after which I might be 60 years old and trying to pick up the pieces of a damaged political party brand?

And don’t get him started on the Republicans! I think we have to take Bayh at his word when he quite justifiably expressed disgust not only with the jobs bill fiasco, but also when he lashed out at the Senate Republicans who opportunistically voted down a bipartisan budget-balancing commission they had previously endorsed.

Quitting the Senate was a no-lose move for the presidentially ambitious Bayh, since he can now crawl away from the political wreckage for a couple of years, plausibly alleging that he tried to steer the party in a different direction -- and then be perfectly positioned to mount a centrist primary challenge to Obama in 2012, depending on circumstances.

There will be those Democrats who bid good riddance to Bayh and his coal-burning-state apostasy about cap and trade, etc. If so, they won’t need a very big tent to contain the celebration. On a more pragmatic view, Bayh’s dramatic vote of no-confidence in his own party’s leadership looks like another Massachusetts-sized political earthquake for the Democrats. Not only does it imperil the president’s short-term hopes of passing health care and other major legislation this year. It also makes it much more likely that the Republicans can pick up Bayh’s Senate seat in normally red Indiana and, with it, control of the Senate itself. If present trends continue, November could turn into a Republican rout.

Dems in major trouble

When the New York Times comes out says democrats are rattled, you know they are troubled.


WASHINGTON — It was a telling glimpse into the state of mind of rattled Senate Democrats.

Worried that they were going to be skewered for pushing a jobs bill that was stuffed with business tax breaks and pork, Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, pulled the plug Thursday on a rare bipartisan proposal, gambling both with the party’s best chance of posting a needed legislative win as well as with President Obama’s new push for cross-party cooperation.

The surprise move by Mr. Reid, partly in response to fears from lawmakers that they were going to take a pummeling on cable news, has put the future of the jobs legislation in question and showed how the criticism heaped on their health care plan and the loss of the Massachusetts Senate seat have put Democrats in a protective crouch.

At the same time, Mr. Reid’s gambit puts pressure on Republicans to back elements they had already endorsed as part of the broader package, rolled out by top Democrats and Republicans on the Finance Committee, a note the White House sounded Friday.

“I think the legislation that Senator Reid will move when the Senate comes back into town will garner bipartisan support,” said Robert Gibbs, the White House spokesman.

Yet if Mr. Reid cannot assemble 60 votes to advance a slimmed-down measure he is proposing when the Senate returns from a 10-day recess on Feb. 22, he could be accused of turning a potential bipartisan victory into a Democratic defeat. He seemed ready to try to turn the tables on Republicans, warning them that they would be guilty of opposing popular provisions they were already backing as part of the broader, more costly bill.

“Each piece of this bill enjoys bipartisan support,” Mr. Reid said of his $15 billion package, which would give payroll tax exemptions for employers who put unemployed people to work and seeks to spur investment in public works projects. “I look forward to swift action on this measure that will create and save dependable jobs.”

But Mr. Reid’s rollout was messy, sent conflicting signals and was highly instructive about the state of relations between the two parties as well as among Democrats.

The events began with Senator Max Baucus, Democrat of Montana and chairman of the Finance Committee, and Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, Mr. Baucus’s occasional Republican partner in bipartisanship, when they released an $85 billion plan that included the payroll tax holiday and a slew of other provisions.

Among them were the extension of billions of dollars in corporate tax breaks, but some were even more off the point of job creation, like agriculture assistance for Arkansas, where Senator Blanche Lincoln, the Democratic chairwoman of the Agriculture Committee, is in a difficult fight to hold her seat.

Still, the measure drew accolades from the left and the right, a virtually unheard of occurrence in the Senate these days and one viewed as a potential sign of a thaw in the partisan freeze. Even the White House weighed in, with Mr. Gibbs distributing a supportive statement on Thursday.

So it was a bit shocking when — just hours after the White House statement — Mr. Reid left a Democratic luncheon and told reporters he was jettisoning the bipartisan proposal for a smaller package that would be the first installment in a comprehensive Democratic jobs agenda.

At the White House on Friday, Mr. Gibbs suggested that even the administration had been caught off guard by Mr. Reid’s shift, saying, “I don’t know the degree to which he talked to us about that.”

As lawmakers, top aides and news organizations tried to sort out what had happened to change the approach, a few things became clear.

First, liberal Democrats in particular were unhappy with the Finance Committee plan, believing that Mr. Baucus had conceded too much to the Republicans and was putting Democrats in danger of attacks for turning a jobs bill into a legislative “Christmas tree” loaded with ornaments for constituents back home. Indeed, House Republicans were already preparing to ridicule it despite the inclusion of elements favored by their party.

“You know,” said Senator Sherrod Brown, Democrat of Ohio, “it looks more like a tax bill than a jobs bill to me, and I want a jobs bill.”

Second, a year of poisonous partisanship has taken its toll on trust in the Senate. Democrats said they remained skeptical that Republicans would follow through on their signals of support for the bipartisan measure. And even if they did, Democrats feared that Republicans would drag out the process, forcing them to use up valuable floor time for a measure that should be approved quickly.

Democrats pointed to a private meeting Tuesday between Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, and Mr. Reid at which, Democrats said, Mr. McConnell would not commit to putting Republican muscle behind the measure.

Republicans pointed out that lack of backing from Mr. McConnell had hardly prevented Democrats from forging ahead with other bills, and they were fuming about Mr. Reid’s maneuver.

An aide to Senator Orrin G. Hatch of Utah, the Republican co-author of the payroll tax plan, said Saturday that he would oppose the measure on the initial procedural vote in protest, depriving Democrats of one of their most likely allies. Another party official said Republican senators might ultimately vote for the bill, but only after making their unhappiness known.

And the Republicans might be only the beginning of Mr. Reid’s problems as he tries to chalk up a victory on the economic issues that are a top election-year concern of many voters.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who helped shepherd a much more expansive jobs and economic package through the House late last year, has her own ideas about what the legislation should look like.

Ms. Pelosi said Friday that she intends to ensure that critical elements of the House measure are in any final package.

Evidently, achieving bicameral harmony can be as hard as finding the right bipartisan balance.

Failblog/FML friday...

here again....










Now some FML

Today, I got into my first car accident. Extremely upset, I called my parents, because it was their car and I didn't know what to do. I told them what happened, and asked if they were on their way to where I was. My dad's response was "Hell no, we're eating dinner." FML

Today, the girl I like came over to my house to watch a movie. We had seen pretty much every movie that I suggested, so we ended up watching The Lion King. I forgot how sad that movie is, because once Mufasa died I started bawling my eyes out. FML

Today, I turned 22. Instead of cutting my own cake, I stood by and smiled at a friend's belated birthday party. She celebrated her birthday two months ago. She decided to have her party on my birthday. No one remembered mine but everyone got her beautiful gifts. FML

Today, I had to give a presentation about Adolf Hitler. I wanted to point out he was a very good speaker, and could incite a crowd. Instead, what came out was 'Hitler's oral skills made everyone go wild with excitement" FML

Today, I got an invitation to my ex-boyfriend's wedding. We broke up because "he didn't believe in marriage." FML

Today, I had a really big debate in my English Class about the legalization of weed. My group had to state reasons why weed shouldn't be legal and no one except me had prepared. My partner came to class totally stoned. Our group lost the debate. We got a F. FML

Today, I was in Walmart with my mom. I was looking for some CDs I wanted and saw a cute guy. Then he nodded at me and as he started to walk towards me, I hear my name being called over the intercom. Apparently, according to my mom, it was time to go. FML

Today, I had to rub my turtle's anus with a wet Q-tip, which is supposed to help with his constipation. I think he liked it. FML

Today, my mother offered me $1.00 for each piece of asparagus I would eat at dinner. I made $14.00. I am 17 years old. FML

Today, I was working my job as a waitress near my college. I handed a customer her check, and she noticed that I had added her bill wrong. I apologized, and she pointed to my "student" labeled nametag, asking what I was studying. I said English. I'm a math major. FML

Today, I went to the pool. When I hit the water the top of my swimsuit came off so I tried to put it on underwater. The lifeguard thought I was drowning and pulled me out in front of everyone. Topless. FML

Today, at my graduation for my high school GED, my parents said they were getting all my family and my girlfriend together. So we all went out to a steakhouse down the road, everyone ordered steaks. Turns out the 'surprise' was me paying. I only got 50$ grad money, and the bill was 159.98. FML

Today, my very conservative aunt was giving me money. She thought it would be funny to secretly stick it in my pocket like a drug deal. She ended up pulling out my pot. FML

Today, while working at the hospital, I had a patient with a blocked bowel. It was so bad, feces were entering into her stomach. While leaning down to talk with her, she proceeded to throw up. I was both vomited and defecated on at the same time. FML

Today, I was taking a bath and out of boredom started making sheep noises. I then had a conversation with myself in farm animal noises. When I got out of the bath, I walked to my bedroom in my towel, passing the living room... where my little brother's soccer team burst out laughing. FML

Today, I went to watch the Movie "UP." At one point in the movie I got really sad and started to cry a bit. The 7 year old girl next to me noticed and told me to shut and man up. FML

Today, I took a nap with a kitten I just adopted from my mom's house. To make her feel more comfortable, I took a nap with her on my bed. In my dream, I kept smelling poo and I felt around on the bed to find the kitten. She apparently had diarrhea on my bed and I had stuck my hand in it. FML

Today, I checked my bank account that i've been saving money in since I was a kid for college. I have $100 left out of the $10,000 I had last month. Apparently my parents thought buying a pool and an HDTV for themselves was more important than my college education. FML

Today, my cousin and I found out that when a girl puts a flower in the right side of her hair, it means she's available. The bigger the flower, the more available she is. My eleven year old boy cousin told me to "cut down a palm tree and put it in my hair". FML

Today, I discovered my boyfriend of 5 months runs a website where men can submit nude or semi nude pictures of their ex's for revenge. FML

Today, I bought my cat a nice big bag of expensive anti-hairball catfood, so she'd stop puking hairballs on my things. After eating it, she started running around wildly, howling and projectile vomiting on EVERYTHING. FML

Today, I work for a company that sells a leading brand of condoms. They give away free condoms to employees at the office. I haven't gotten laid since I began working here. FML

Today, I decided that I was going to get my front license plate put back on my car after two years of having it off. In these two years I somehow never got pulled over for it, as it is illegal to drive without one in MD. On my way there, I got pulled over for not having a front license plate. FML

Today, I went to a Dodger game with my crush. Between innings, the "Kiss cam" came up on the big screen. The camera happened to land on us, and when my crush saw us on the screen, he leaned away from me and buried his face in his hands. Everyone saw, and sympathetically said "Awww." FML

Today, I was vacuuming my car and started to joke around with my six year old brother by sucking up his shirt and hair with the vacuum. I accidently sucked up his penis. My mom has caught him three times with the vacuum now. I turned my brother into a pervert. FML

Today, I was playing a medieval game with my brother, when he took all of his character's clothes off and said, "Let's have sex!" I looked at him and said, "UH YOU ARE MY BROTHER!" He turns and looks at me, smiling and says, "But not in the game!" I am a 19 year old girl. He is 12. FML

Today, my band had a show. We played a love song, and during the bridge, I ask out a friend of mine who was in the crowd, over the mic, in front of at least 200 people. She said no. FML

Today, In my science class I sit next to my friend Jill. My teacher always gets our names confused caling me Jill & her Liz. She decided to combine our names. I'm now known as Jizz. My teacher clearly has no idea what it means. FML

Today, I went on a date with my boyfriend. Suddenly he starts speaking gibberish. I ask what's wrong? He says, "I was just talking to my unicorn. He says you're pretty," and winks at me. What have we learned today? The person I like is a freak, and apparently unicorns are real. FML

Today, I got my drivers license suspended until I am 18 for driving without a license. Where was I driving to? My last day of Drivers Ed. The high school where I take Drivers Ed. classes at is across the street from my house. I gave up 3 years of driving to drive 100 feet. FML

Today, I had my first appearance in a court as an attorney. I called the prosecution the prostitution. FML

Today, I was smoking in my car and flicked the butt... into the face of a cop on a motorcycle going the other way. FML

Today, I was cleaning out my fiance's room while he was away so we could move into our new home. Not only did I find a few gay nudie mags, but also some interesting love letters from a nice man named Pablo. Apparently I need to do a lot more than cleaning his room to excite him. Like grow a penis. FML

Today, was my senior prom. I've had a crush on my date for months, but after many attempts at grinding with him and sexy seduction, he rejected me saying he was a good Catholic boy. I later found out that not only is he in touch with his religion, but intimately in touch with other boys. FML

Today, I had to water my entire garden. After an exhausting hour of watering hundreds of plants, I turned off the hose and started to feel good about the grueling job. That is, until it started pouring rain. FML

Today, as a prank, my friends put a big bucket of water on my door so that it would spill on me as I exited my room. It would have been funny if I hadn't been holding my $900 laptop as I was walking out. FML

Today, after buying the plane ticket to Glendale, CA to visit 17 year old Courtney who I met on a dating website, she called me for the first time to say that she was actually 19 year old Seth from Atlanta, GA. FML

Today, my dad decided to clean out my car and "accidentally" threw away my $520 tax refund check. FML