With each passing day it gets more difficult for the Democrats to pass health care. Literally.
Today, Rep. Neil Abercrombie's retirement takes effect as the veteran Democrat devotes his full time to running for governor of Hawaii. Abercrombie voted for the House bill, so that's one more "yes" vote that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi won't have if she hopes to pass health care using reconciliation.
Pelosi has lost three "yes" votes since Nov. 7. The others: Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., who died Feb. 8, and Rep. Robert Wexler, D-Fla., who resigned Jan. 3 to become the head of the non-profit Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation.
The House vote last time was 220-215, so Pelosi will need to persuade some of the 39 Democrats who voted against the House bill to vote for the Senate bill -- which is the first step of a two-step reconciliation process. That won't be easy.
The Senate version includes abortion language and back-room deals, like the infamous Cornhusker Kickback, that moderates find objectionable. Sure, Obama said the extra Medicaid money for Nebraska won't be included in the final bill -- but House members will have to vote for a bill containing the objectionable provisions before they can vote for a bill without them. That could cost Pelosi more votes. Reps. Joseph Cao, R-La., and Bart Stupak, D-Mich., both of whom voted for the House health care bill, have suggested they won't vote for the Senate bill because of the abortion language.
There will be special elections in Pennsylvania and Hawaii in May to replace Murtha and Abercrombie. The general election for Wexler's seat will be in April.
So that means its down to 217-215 by subtracting the 3 yes votes and having two yes votes move to no means its 215-217 which means the bill would be defeated. Assuming liberals hold those 3 seats it would bump back up to passing 218-217 but if even one of those seats flip the bill is dead. It doesn't even look like the Senate is going to get to vote on this. Let the meltdown continue!
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