From Real clear politics today... keep in mind the Senate is 59-41 Dem now
TOSS UPS
Colorado: Bennet (D)
Illinois: Open (D)
Missouri: Open (R)
Ohio: Open (R)
Pennsylvania: Specter (D)
I would say that there is a very good chance of these all going Republican, Kirk in Illinois is up 46-40 and keep in mind this is Obama's former Senate seat currently held by crazy Roland Burris. Specter is an idiot who keeps on sticking his foot in his mouth and Bennet is very unpopular right now. In my opinion the 2 true toss-ups are Missouri and Ohio and I have no idea about either race, I'll do my homework on them and get back to you.
(Conservative preditiction, Republicans take 3, maybe 4 of these seats)
R+1 or 2
LEAN REPUBLICAN
Arkansas: Lincoln (D)
Kentucky: Open (R)
Nevada: Reid (D)
New Hampshire: Open (R)
North Carolina: Burr (R)
Lincoln is dead, politically (polls showed her down 23 points to someone who won't even declare for the race until Saturday) so is Reid, he is behind ALL 3 OF THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY CONTENDERS. Ouch, and he's majority leader in the Senate. Kentucky and NH I don't know about and I will get back to them later this week if not next, Burr should be safe, I mean if New Jersey can elect a conservative one would think Burr could get re-elected in traditionally very red North Carolina.
result: R+2
LEAN DEMOCRAT
California: Boxer (D)
New York: Gillibrand (D)
Picking off one of these seats would be amazing, but not impossible, taking both would be like, well, Scott Brown winning in MA. If Pataki gets in I think he can knock off Gillibrand, who by the way is getting a primary challenge from carpet bagger Harold Ford, yes the same Harold Ford who ran back in 2004 for Senate in Tennessee. As much as I want to see her gone I just don't think Boxer will get knocked off, she has virtually unlimited funding and ACORN can probably get enough illegal aliens to vote for her (yes I'm that cynical, some might call it realistic) so she's probably staying. I can dream though.
R:+1
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Delaware: Open (D)
Florida: Open (R)
Louisiana: Vitter (R)
I was very surprised to see Delaware on this, wouldn't that be something. Both the President and Vice-Presidents former senate seats are lost to the opposition in the first mid-term election since they were elected. I trust RCP on this
R:+1
LIKELY DEMOCRAT
Indiana: Bayh (D)
Wisconsin: Feingold (D)
It says likely but neither of them should get too comfy. They would be the darkhorses to go, both will probably be back
R:+0
SAFE REPUBLICAN
North Dakota: Open (D)
It's in the bag, literally.
R:+1
SAFE DEMOCRAT
Connecticut: Open (D)
No way in hell, this looked like a flip seat until Dodd dropped out, I actually wish he was still running, that way this seat would still be in play.
Total R:+5 that would put it at 54-46 democrat. Not bad.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
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