Monday, August 09, 2010

DFL pre-primary debate wrapup

ok I will be analyzing the hour-long debate MPR hosted last night (I think it can also be heard at midday today on afternoon edition, I wouldn't know though outside of this debate the amount of time I listen to NPR/MPR is basically zero) between the 3 DFL governor candidates; Mark Dayton, Matt Entenza, and Margaret Anderson-Kelliher. For the longest time I have thought that Dayton would be the easiest for Emmer to win against this fall but I am seriously rethinking that opinion. Tonight's debate will clear my opinion on this matter. I will also analyze the strength and weaknesses of each of the potential nominees, I will have a prediction either late Monday or early Tuesday on the outcome of the DFL governors primary. note: I got some of these quotes from MPR's twitter page of the event, to see a detailed live blog of the entire one hour debate go here)
(note I'm going to go through question by question, if you look at the question and it bores you, skip it, this is going to be one long ass post.)
Q: You talk to DFLers, they say they're happy with any of you. why should they pick you.
Dayton: I would be the candidate to raise the most revenues on the "richest Minnesotans."
Dayton: The difference is I'll raise the most revenue by making the richest pay more taxes. Right now taxes in Minnesota are deeply regressive. The richest Minnesotans making over $1 million are paying only 2/3s of the share everyone else is making.

Kelliher: "I don't quit, i don't back down." (A shot at Dayton and Entenza who left their posts in 2006)
Entenza: "We have to understand that we can't tax our way to greatness" ( a shot at Dayton).
Editorial: you can bet if Dayton wins the primary that quote is going to be in A LOT of Emmer and pro-Emmer ads this fall. Thanks for the soundbite Matt.

(notice the colors I have put in, this is just for me, dark blue is Dayton most liberal, Entenza is light blue the most moderate, and Kelliher is in the more liberal than Entenza, but slighly less than Dayton)
Q2: Dayton, why is your tax plan better than the other plans?
Dayton: The Democratic wing of the Democratic party pushes for progressive taxes. He said Entenza and Kelliher don't go far enough. Why shouldn't people making $240k a year not pay a single dollar more? It surprises me to be criticized by fellow Democrats for suggeting the wealthy pay their fair share of taxes. My two DFL friends are proposing plans that aren't progressive. Kelliher refers to a police offcer and nurse, police make about $51k. Nurses make about $73k. My tax plan wouldn't affect that couple. the flip side is I've asked my two friends here, "why do you think peopl emaking over $240k a year shouldn't pay more taxes"
Kelliher: Minnesotans have paid more in property taxes. We'd be higher than Hawaii. We need a balanced approach. There needs to be changes for how costs are accounted for. We didn't get here overnight, we got here over 12 years. To do it over two years is going to be a difficult thing. There will be cuts to nursing homes if we do it over two years. I think whenyou're talking about reality, you need to work in the art of the possible. Becoming the highest-tax state in the country is going to work.
Entenza: We're a state far away from other markets. High taxes will diminish business climate in state.
Editorial: Wow Entenza with another bitch slap at Dayton, go Matt!
Entenza: I have sympathy for what Mark is trying to do. Whentimes are difficult, those whoare high income must pay fair share. I would put rates back to what they were in 1998. No one can argue that the economy wasn't going well then. Let's face it: We're a state that is far away from a lot of markets, if we put our rate at a rate higher than nay other state, we're not going to succeed well.
Editorial: boy for all the dissing the DFL does of Emmer, it sounds like Matt is outright lifted parts of his "opinion" from Emmer speeches, maybe someone should look in to this?

First audience Q: What specific proposal will you put forward on K12?
(oh this is going to be GOOD)

]]Kelliher: "Educating our littlelest learners will be my first prioritiy. I'm going to work with the Legislature. What refreshing words are those. Funding that's fair, equitable and stable. I'm the only one who has a firm committment to make sure that happens. Reinvestment in higher education.
(translation: if the Teachers Union asks me to jump I ask how high. They own me.)
Entenza: "One of the best ways not to put people in jail is to let them know they're welcome in society. We have to be careful: If we promise we're going to fully fund, we have to say how we're going to do it. Under my plan, one of the first things we'll do is make a long-term investment.
(investment= high teacher pay, while making it nearly impossible for any real reform in the educational situation)
Dayton: Pawlenty vetoed early childhool education improvements. I volunteered with Head Start as a senior in college. Today, less than half of kids who could take part in Head Start do. In Minnesota, it's a third. I'll make sure there'll be state funding for all-day kindergarten. our budget is about value and priorities. GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty vetoed projects for ECFE in bonding bill. He said budget is about values - and will focus on ed.
(psst- Mark you aren't running against T-Paw, you might want to up that medication you are no doubt on. It's not 2006, its 2010)

Q from audience: Will you support Vikings stadium with public money?
Entenza: I voted against first three deal the Twins put forward because they wanted general fund money. At the end of the day, I was part of crafting a proposal that worked (tell that to the Hennpein county legislators who felt they got ganged up on). At the end of the day, th Vikins is an asset and building a stadium creates job and a major league envornment. Zygi Wilf is a millionaire because he spends other people's money.
Dayton: I don't support spending $970 million in taxpayer money and give to Vikes but will look at every option to fund Vikes.
Kelliher: We have to look at the issue seriously. (you think?) First, we must balance our budget. First, new school funding, health care, and after thatit's important to entertain this idea. I would not use any general fund tax dollars. Some form of a partnership. I was there when we did the Twins swtadium.

(Now the candidates go after each other. Praying for a damning quote from each one just to have our bases covered)

Dayton to Entenza: What replaces No Child Left Behind?
Entenza: It's been disastrous . We need a clearaing house for best practices. Entenza says he wants training program for new teachers. He also wants to promote public schools and "not beat them up."
Entenza to Kelliher: What taxes would you raise, what would you cut?
Kelliher: My budget will be a jobs budget etc. I don't think current school funding is working. We need to scrap it and come ...and I have a plan to fund schools equitably over the next six years. It's going to relieve property taxes by $600 million. I have a full balanced budget proposal on my Web site.
Entenza asks Kelliher what cuts would you make? Kelliher says she's focused on job creation. Didn't answer question
(Ok through the first half-hour Entenza is far and away winning this debate. I thought about voting for him on Tuesday, no more. This guy is a threat)

Kelliher to Dayton: I appreciate all of your service (the hammer's coming when a question starts like that), what do we say to the police officer marridd to the nurse who is going to pay more under your plan? How do you answer being the highest tax state in a time of recession?
(And we have our first smackdown folks, how will the Trust Fund Baby respond?)

Dayton: "It's simply not true, Margaret." (applause). The average cop makes 51k , the average nurse makes 73k. That's 124k. My plan starts with 150k . Thios couple is well below that. The tradeoff is if you don't make the richest Minensotans pay their fair share, if the CEO of United HealthCare is making much more and paying less taxes, then other people are going to suffer.
(NOTE TO EMMER CAMPAIGN, PLEASE PUT THIS QUOTE UP, HE JUST CHOKED ON HIS FOOT, and totally dodged the question)
(also, what if a cop makes 65k and a nurse makes 85k? They would be hit by his "taxing the rich" plan)

John from Brainerd (Kelliher supporter): Please be specific on how you will work with legislative branch.
Dayton: I learned from Rudy Perpich. any commissioner who's not at the legislature when the legislature is in session, is working at the wrong place. I'll work the same way I did in the U.S. Senate. Working both sides of the aisle, got funding for Beyond the Yellow Ribbon (hardly a partisan issue, there)
(Once again, the US Senate is NOTHING LIKE a state legislature working with a governor, you clearly failed Civics 101 at Blake and Harvard. Or Yale, I'm sorry I forgot which Ivy League elitest school you went to mr.common man)
Kelliher: As speaker I did some pretty big things, standing up to Gov. Pawlenty, including that transportation override. I was able to build a coalition (note: The coalition was 6 Republicans). You don't quit until the work is done. Transportation. Legacy Amenment. Being able to bring people together. When I earned the endorsement, the number of legislative supporters weren't just Democrats, but a number of Republicans and Independents.
(HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, oh Marge you kill me! Oh and I heard you didn't so much earn your endorsement as you wrestled it away from RT with your Union thugs)
Entenza: I nkow there's folks out there who want to stick with status quo, but it's not working. I will scrap No Child Left Behind. tha's the kind of leadership we need. In 2005, when we were in a govt. shutdown forced by Tim Pawlenty, I had to Republican legislators coming to me saying "we know you'rewilling to compromise," but the governor had his feet in cement. That's why I'm pleased to have Dave Jennings, former republican speaker of the house, support me.
(another reason to not vote for Matt, he's way too sane. Then again a schizo would probably seem sane standing next to Dayton and Kelliher)

Dan from Northfield (undecided): Wtih Tom Emmer's campaign imploding, Tom Horner looks like the person to beat. Why is your message better?
(Gee I wonder how that PLANT got in?! MPR for shame, Emmer's campaign isn't imploding, its reorganizing. Just because you wish it was imploding doesn't make it so)

Kelliher: It's a long time to november. I've taken on Tom Emmer. I know his tricks and I know his buttons. The DFLers were correct when they chose me to beat Emmer but they were also thinking about Tom horner. I'm the first DFL candidate who can attract independents and hold DFLers in our camp because of my collaborative style. I have a lot of experience with that.
(uh-huh, you got bullied by T-Paw despite being 4 votes short of a veto-proof house this last session. What were you major accomplishments? And don't say the transportation bill that got 6 RINO's to sign on with you, that was actually pretty shameful)

Entenza: Let me take you back to 2002, Wellstone's death, DFLers went into the miniority and almost lost control of the Senate. Pundits said the DFL was dead. A week later, I was elected to lead the Democrats
(It is true, too bad we couldn't have finished them off when they were on life support)

Dayton: I ran against a conservative Republican in a statewide election and I pointed out that a vote for an independent is a vote for the conservative candidate. He, has been involved in representing special interests. Do people want that, someone reprsenting the far right wing, or someone reprsenting Minnesotans.
(If you think you represent Minnesota Mark I have some great coastline property land I want to sell you, in Nevada)

Q from Eichten: Should the state have single payer health care?
(Only in a DFL debate could this still be debated, the vast majority of Americans, around 60%+ say no to this)

Entenza: No, the state can't afford single payer but I committed to getting everyone covered.
(What a weasel answer Matt)

Dayton: We need something different. I was in Luverne. A woman in her 50s said she's paying over 14k in health insurance, but have to pay the first 10k in health care because "these health care giants are reporting huge profits." That's why I favored a single payer program. I'll work for that here.
(boy talk about the gift that keeps on giving!)

Kelliher: Describes a woman who lost her health care and died. That's why I have passion about the issue. No one should die in Minnesota because they dont' have health care.
(shameful, but then again these are democrats)

Entenza asks Dayton: Should MN go to a clean energy economy?
Dayton: I agree


Kelliher Q to Entenza: Can state afford to become "No new taxes state to all new taxes state?" Entenza: that's a q for Dayton.
(Entenza made a funny, cute)

Entenza differs to Dayton. Dayton defends plan because state would go from 9th highest to 7th highest if enacted.
(sounds like they are ganging up on Dayton here. Question, if/when Dayton wins will all the Entenza-Kelliher people go over to Dayton? Somehow I don't think they will)

Dayton Q for Kelliher: Could you say why Rep. Emmer opposed Legacy Amendment? She said that's why DFLers picked her for endorsed
Kelliher said "you don't quit, you stay and do the job," which I think is a shot against Dayton shutting his office because of a terrorist threat and he didn't run for re-election. The debate has now reached the "candidates are talking code" stage. Very Minnesotan.

Q from audience: Why the DFL drought in gov's races in MN?
Dayton: I unabashadly run as a Democrat. Touts higher tax plan
(I think that's part of the problem Mark, in this environment saying your "unabashadly Democrat" and going to run as one, is like saying you are for clubbing baby seals)

Elizabeth from Golden Valley (undecided): How will you generate a thriving Minnesota. Where will new jobs come from?

Kelliher says she has a comprehensive jobs plan. touts track record of working with business
Entenza says state needs focus and "clean energy economy" should be that focus

Will you actively support the other candidate if you don't win: All 3 say yes
(I'll believe that when I see it, Seifert said he'd support Emmer in the general election and you haven't heard a peep from him since the convention back in early May)


Closing statements
Dayton: "More than any other candidate, I'll lead MN in a new direction."
Entenza: We need a gov who gets it, calls to scrap No Child Left Behind.
Kelliher: I am going to be that fearless person to fight for Minnesotans

Well there you have it folks here is my mini recap

Mark Dayton- Grade D+
He sucked big time in this debate and I think that he said some things that will be repeated this fall in ads. Assuming MAK or Entenza doesn't upset him on Tuesday of course.

MAK- Grade B
She did a good job of positioning herself inbetween the 'guys'. Less liberal and extreme than Dayton but still more liberal than Entenza.

Matt Entenza- A+
Ok this guy officially scares me. If he has an organized ground game he might be able to pull off a big primary upset and honestly he does scare me much more than Dayton. He seems like a likeable guy and could win people over. Plus I think he could hold his own with Emmer in a debate. Very concerning indeed. He took shots at both candidates and called MAK on her non-answer during this debate.

Summation: VOTE MARK DAYTON IN THE DFL PRIMARY REPUBLICANS! He is by far the easiest of the 3 to beat. Period, end of story, thats all folks...

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