Its primary day bitchez!

The long awaited day has finally come. I am doing my second round of predicitions on this blog (first was back in November 2009) and to show I'm serious lets recap how I did the first time around... (only the governors races though, NY-23 had way too many variables, plus I kinda got it dead wrong)
This was my analysis of the NJ GOV race...

Breakdown
NJ Governor
10/27 Corzine +9, Christie +4,+3
10/28 Corzine +5,
10/29 Corzine +5, Christie +1, tie
10/30 Corzine +1, Christie +1,+7,+3
11/1 Christie+1
11/2 Christie+2,+6

So since 10/27 there have been 14 polls taken, 4 have Corzine leading by an average of 5%. 9 have Christie leading by an average of 3.3% and one tie. Right now it looks like it SHOULD be a virtual tossup thanks to Daggett siphoning off votes from Christie, unless he pulls a Scozzafava and drops out Christie is going to possibly have to sweat it out until the early morning hours Wednesday. My prediction
Christie 49%, Corzine 43%, Daggett 7% with the remaining going to fringe candidates. The PPP poll today is huge because it leans democratic in its idealolgy so Christie may have a 8-10% point lead which could cause some of his supporters to get overconfident and stay home on election night.

my prediction: Christie 49% Corzine 43% Daggett 7%
actual results: Christie 48.5% Corzine 44.9% Daggett 5.8%
Not too bad for an amatuer political scientist huh?

Now my take on the VA GOV race
Breakdown
VA Governor
10/27 McDonnell +17
10/28 McDonnell +18,+13
10/29 McDonnell +17,+14,+10
10/30 N/A
10/31 N/A
11/1 McDonnell +12
11/2 McDonnell +14

Pretty depressing for Deeds considering Obama actually won this state last year and has had a Democratic govenor for the last 8 years. Since 10/27 8 polls have been released all showing McDonnell with at least a double-digit lead (average 14.5% lead). "Bold" prediction by me, McDonnell wins by a minimum 60-40 due to strong GOP turnout and democratic indifference, leaving the fact that Deeds was probably the worst that the state dems could do for a nominee of the 3 contenders there were. This thing was over before it started. Even Obama essentially gave the middle finger to the Deeds camp. He never stood a shot.
ok granted this wasn't as hard but I did reach by saying McDonnell wins by at least 20 percentage points when no one had him up by that much

my prediction: McDonnell wins by a minimum 60-40
results: McDonnell 59% Deeds 41%
once again not too bad, and on election night McDonnell was up at 62-63 percent.

Ok enough with me patting myself on the back, to today folks. Here is a recap of polls compiled by RCP of the primary race: (and the margin of error, MOE, put in by me)

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Dayton Kelliher Entenza Spread MOE
SurveyUSA 8/2 - 8/4 510 LV 43 27 22 Dayton +16 +/-4.4%
Star Tribune 7/26 - 7/29 RV 40 30 17 Dayton +10 +/-4.5%
SurveyUSA 6/14 - 6/16 500 LV 39 26 22 Dayton +13 +/-4.5%
Minn.Pub.Radio 5/13 - 5/16 A 38 28 6 Dayton +10 +/-n/a

Ok I'm throwing the MPR poll out because it's the oldest and Entenza has had a massive media blitz since then so that skews all the numbers

analysis factoring in MOE in parentheses
Survey USA #1- Dayton 39%(43.5-34.5%) Kelliher 26%(30.5%-21.5%) Entenza 22%(21.5%-12.5%) 87% total which means 13% undecided in this poll. So according to this poll its a virtual tossup between Dayton and Kelliher with Entenza really pulling up in the rear by a lot. It sampled 500 Likely Voters over 6/14 - 6/16 so this poll is nearly 2 months old but it shows that Dayton is the frontrunner.
Weight of poll scale 1-10: 5

Star Trib- Dayton 40% (44.5%-35.5%) Kelliher 30% (34.5%-25.5%) Entenza 17% (21.5%-12.5%) 87% total which means 13% undecided for this poll. Kelliher closed the gap even though Dayton gained a little. Interesting to note both polls have 13% undecided/uncommitted poll was taken 7/26 - 7/29 so its recent.
Weight of poll scale 1-10: 7

SurveyUSA- Dayton 43% (47.4%-39.6%) Kelliher 27% (31.4%-22.6%) Entenza 22% (26.4%-17.6%) 92% which means only 8% are uncommitted. This poll doesn't mean as much as you might think which is why I will do no further analysis of it.

There is going to be one major, independent variable, that determines the outcome of this primary today. The WEATHER! It is going to be miserably hot out today and humid so MAK relying on her ground game could cost her and Entenza relying on the pot-head youth vote is a bad idea. His supporters would rather smoke a bowl in their parents Air-Conditioned basement today than go out and vote for him. Dayton is the winner in this scenario because seniors are his base and they will vote, but maybe not today because of the weather. All 3 lose because of the weather, who loses the least? Dayton. Why? Because a lot of his senior support have already voted absentee. Dayton will win as a result of his supporters already casting a ballot (legally) before primary day. MAK is toast because she will rely on her Union ground game and the Teamsters aren't really known for their work ethic. Entenza is a wild-card though. I think he will finish second because of his debate performance. He might even cause the Dayton camp to really sweat it out tonight I think with MAK finishing a distant third. My prediction is this...

Dayton- 38%
Entenza- 36%
MAK- 26%

Now to see how accurate I am, I need to wait about another 14-15 hours. Of which I will probably be sleeping none...