Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Someone has done my work for me...

While reading the RCP page today something caught my eye, a list of people who could be on McCain's ticket here's the article...

Our third look at potential vice presidential contenders tackles John McCain, the all-but-crowned Republican nominee. Unlike Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, McCain has problems with his own base, which will likely play a major factor in the selection process. Still, McCain has a history of seemingly intentionally irritating conservatives, so he could throw those concerns out the window and just pick whoever he likes.

Again, here are four serious choices, a long-shot contender and someone you'll never see on McCain's ticket:

Tim Pawlenty: The governor of Minnesota was one of McCain's earliest and loudest supporters. Unlike some, when McCain's campaign seemed to collapse, Pawlenty didn't abandon ship. McCain values loyalty, and Pawlenty's loyalty could be repaid with a nomination. Pawlenty has found electoral success, though by the skin of his teeth in 2006, in a traditionally Democratic state, and balancing the ticket with a Midwesterner could be just what Southwestern McCain needs. Republicans need Ohio to win an election, though Pawlenty could make the case for the GOP ticket in nearby Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa, three states that chose presidential candidates by very narrow margins in 2004.


Well, as a fellow Minnesotan it would be nice to see a REPUBLICAN from Minnesota on a national ticket (see Humphrey, Mondale),I am not warming up to this idea as much as I was before. We need Pawlenty here in this state, the Lt. Govenor (sp?) Carol Molnau is caught up in a "scandel" with the 35W bridge collapse (I'd care not to get into it now, maybe in another post) and she could be the target of, and I'm not kidding, impeachment if she gets bumped up to govenor. Now 2012 or 2016 is another story, I think T-Paw is biding his time, he could be president someday. You can quote me on that.

Odds: 10:1

Mike Huckabee: In what has to be the most polite campaign in generations, Huckabee is still running against McCain, and though he can't win the race mathematically, he can prevent McCain from getting the necessary delegates to do so. That might force McCain's hand and make him hire Huckabee, or it could prove that the former Arkansas Governor is scrappy enough to be the attack dog. When thinking about running mates, McCain has to consider the possibility of a vice presidential debate, and regardless of who the Democrats pick, Huckabee could wipe the floor with them for a solid hour. McCain has never had the closest relationship with evangelical voters, something Huckabee knows about, and while anti-tax groups would scream bloody murder, picking Huckabee could go a long way toward healing McCain's rift with the base.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this guy is the odds on favorite to win the VP nomination. As quoted from above he could hold the McCain nomination hostage is John doesn't get enough delegates come Sept 1st. I still think this is the strongest ticket possible. Plus you gotta love a guy who has gone on the Colbert Report 4-5 times and held his own with Stephen (not an easy thing to do).

Odds 4:5 (a lock at the moment)

Mark Sanford: The governor of South Carolina would be the closest thing McCain could do to picking someone who irritates conservatives just for the heck of it. Sanford is widely admired by his constituents, but the Republican establishment in the Palmetto State are not fans. Sanford stayed on the sidelines this year, but in 2000 he, along with now-Sen. Lindsey Graham, were big McCain backers as members of Congress. Sanford is conservative, has a record of management, and while he doesn't bring anything geographically, he could solidify the GOP base in the South, something every Republican needs if they're to have even a chance at winning the White House. Picking Sanford could be tantamount to admitting McCain needs help in solid red country, but he still brings benefits as a governor.

Honestly I've never heard of this guy. And I don't think many people outside of SC have either, enough of a reason to discount him right now.

Odds n/a

Chuck Hagel: A fellow Vietnam veteran, if the war in Iraq once again comes to dominate the debate, Hagel would be a good choice if McCain tries to tack back toward the center. That's not to say McCain will change his position; he is invested, both personally and politically, in the success of the war. But Hagel's opposition to some parts of the war could send the message that McCain is more interested in success now than success later. Hagel, a businessman, would probably make business Republicans happy. Like McCain, though, Hagel's record on social issues is solid, but with little advocacy to which he can point. Some social conservatives might think Hagel, like McCain, is not really one of theirs despite voting records that tell the opposite story.

3 words: not gonna happen.

odds 100,000:1

Longshot: Charlie Crist: The only reason the extremely popular Florida governor, who has a record on taxes and social issues that conservatives love but who attracts support from Democrats too, should be considered a long shot is his relatively short two-year tenure in the governor's mansion. Other than that, Crist is nearly perfect: He's well-tanned (and it looks real), he's from a swing state critical to any candidate's fortunes, and he is one of the most personable people in politics. His last-minute backing gave McCain just enough momentum to overcome Mitt Romney in Florida, a result that essentially made McCain the front-runner. Crist may not be on a ticket this year, but watch to see if he joins a ticket in the near future.

Not as much of a longshot as Hagel but still nonethless no name recognition.

Odds 1,000:1

Bonus Longshot: Mitt Romney: As we wrote for Clinton, she could conceivably be forced to pick Obama if neither has the delegates necessary to carry the convention on their own. Should McCain's surprising underperformance against Mike Huckabee continue to an extent to which McCain cannot achieve delegates necessary to winning the nomination, Mitt Romney's 200-plus delegates could come into play. If McCain needed delegates to get over the top, and if he somehow cannot reach an agreement with Huckabee, Romney's collection could be the answer. The two men seem to intensely dislike each other, and Romney as vice president might be marginalized, but at least he would be vice president.

Um, like it says above too much bad blood. Romney's time will come, probably not until 2016 though.

Odds 500:1

Never Going To Happen: Condoleezza Rice: More people selected Rice than any other candidate in RCP's Veepstakes, but the Secretary of State will simply never make her way onto McCain's list, short or long. An African-American woman on a Republican ticket would be great for the party, of course, but choosing Rice goes against McCain's needs for two reasons: He has so far resisted comparing himself with President Bush, and by selecting someone from the same administration that he is essentially running against, McCain would reverse himself on a central tenet of his campaign. Secondly, as Democrats at all levels of government crank out press releases accusing any member of the GOP of being a Bush Republican, if McCain picked an actual member of the Bush Administration, he would give the "third term" argument that much more plausibility.

I'd love it but it isn't going to happen.

Joe Lieberman: I can't believe they didn't mention him in this article and put in someone like Rice. He could be a ultimate darkhorse but since he is at his core a democrat (outside of the war) he would destroy this party and all the evangelicals would stay home.

Odds 750:1

1 comment:

The Zombieslayer said...

Of them, rooting for Huckabee. I could stomach him. I'm Pro-Choice and strongly believe in evolution (you can be Christian and believe in evolution - one of my college Evolution Professors was a fellow Christian), but other than that, Huckabee's not too far from me.

I actually like Rice and it's a shame she's tied to Bush.