Monday, December 27, 2010

SOTW #25Trans-Siberian Orchestra - Christmas Canon Rock

Merry belated Christmas one and all.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

SOTW #23Linkin Park - The Catalyst (Official HD)

Ok yeah I'm not sure what the deal is with my favorite band's new obsession with civil unrest, anarchy, and actually trying to say something political (I think at least) but hey the video still kicks major ass. Back to posting today. Been sick as a dog for the last week.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

I think we need a new football stadium...

If one good thing came out of the massive, hellish, insane storm it would be a good case for building a new football stadium. Here is the Dome giving up the ghost so to speak, pretty amazing footage thats going all around the net and tv today. Almost everyone in the country will have seen it by the end of tonight.


Update: I found a birds eye view of the collapsed Dome...

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Snownami Mother Maturi liveblog...

2:30am off to bed, only 2.5 inches of snow so far


1:30pm finally got my ass out of bed...

1:50pm saw two people cross country skiing up my street.

2:00pm - National Weather service sez Edina has got 9.9 inches, so far...

2:30pm- MNDot just said no one should be on the roads.

3:30pm- Metro Transit has ceased operations. All buses have been pulled due to drivers getting stuck. damn...

4:05pm- National Weather Service sez Edina has 12.7 inches

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

Life imitating art much?

Ok as geeky as this sounds the first thing I thought of when I heard North Korea was launching missles into South Korea was this...



Kinda creepy aint it?

Monday, November 15, 2010

Drudge sums it up perfectly...


THE TERRORISTS HAVE WON

yep, thanks Obama administration. You have done what everyone said the Bush Administration did. Take away our rights. The 4th Amendment is officially dead.

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

My Predictions...

In doing my predictions I wait until early election day. Why? Because weather affects turnout, I won't bore you with the numbers but the Weather Channel's website has an interesting breakdown
The cities of Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Little Rock and Jackson, Mississippi all could deal with lower voter turnout than usual thanks to the soggy conditions.
But other than that its a really nice day out for most of the country. Here are my national predictions

House

I am going to be bold, 85 seat gain but due to variables I want to give myself a 15 seat cushion either way 70-100 seats will be flipped in my opinion. To give you an idea where others are the RealClearPolitics average goes from 45-89 seats gained so my window it narrower and higher than RCP.

Senate

GOP pickup of 9-11 seats. I'm saying 10 so it would be a 50-50 split. We would get one current Dem in danger or Libermann to caucus with us.

Governor

Emmer by 2 points 44-42

Monday, November 01, 2010

A reminder to everyone...

My election day predictions will be tomorrow or late tonight possibly but for now lets remind ourselves what this election is and what it isn't. It is not going to be a vote FOR Republican/Tea Party candidates, it is a vote AGAINST Obama and the insane agenda and the tone deaf leaders, Obama/Pelosi/Reid and all the "representatives" in DC who cared more about passing ObamaCare than a jobs bill. Scott Rasmussen says it best in a WSJ article today.

In the first week of January 2010, Rasmussen Reports showed Republicans with a nine-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. Scott Brown delivered a stunning upset in the Massachusetts special U.S. Senate election a couple of weeks later. In the last week of October 2010, Rasmussen Reports again showed Republicans with a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. And tomorrow Republicans will send more Republicans to Congress than at any time in the past 80 years.

This isn't a wave, it's a tidal shift—and we've seen it coming for a long time. Remarkably, there have been plenty of warning signs over the past two years, but Democratic leaders ignored them. At least the captain of the Titanic tried to miss the iceberg. Congressional Democrats aimed right for it. While most voters now believe that cutting government spending is good for the economy, congressional Democrats have convinced them that they want to increase government spending. After the president proposed a $50 billion infrastructure plan in September, for example, Rasmussen Reports polling found that 61% of voters believed cutting spending would create more jobs than the president's plan. Central to the Democrats' electoral woes was the debate on health-care reform. From the moment in May 2009 when the Congressional Budget Office announced that the president's plan would cost a trillion dollars, most voters opposed it. Today 53% want to repeal it. Opposition was always more intense than support, and opposition was especially high among senior citizens, who vote in high numbers in midterm elections. Rather than acknowledging the public concern by passing a smaller and more popular plan, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama insisted on passing the proposed legislation by any means possible.

As a result, Democrats face massive losses in tomorrow's midterm election. Based upon our generic ballot polling and an analysis of individual races, we project that Nancy Pelosi's party will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House, putting the GOP firmly in the majority. Republicans will also win at least 25 of the 37 Senate elections. While the most likely outcome is that Republicans end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats, Democrats will need to win close races in West Virginia, Washington and California to protect their majority. There will also be a lot more Republican governors in office come January. It looks like six heartland states stretching from Pennsylvania to Iowa will trade a Democratic governor for a Republican one. A common theme in all the races is that white, working-class Democrats who tended to vote for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008 are prepared to vote for Republicans.

But none of this means that Republicans are winning. The reality is that voters in 2010 are doing the same thing they did in 2006 and 2008: They are voting against the party in power. This is the continuation of a trend that began nearly 20 years ago. In 1992, Bill Clinton was elected president and his party had control of Congress. Before he left office, his party lost control. Then, in 2000, George W. Bush came to power, and his party controlled Congress. But like Mr. Clinton before him, Mr. Bush saw his party lose control. That's never happened before in back-to-back administrations. The Obama administration appears poised to make it three in a row. This reflects a fundamental rejection of both political parties.

More precisely, it is a rejection of a bipartisan political elite that's lost touch with the people they are supposed to serve. Based on our polling, 51% now see Democrats as the party of big government and nearly as many see Republicans as the party of big business. That leaves no party left to represent the American people.
Voters today want hope and change every bit as much as in 2008. But most have come to recognize that if we have to rely on politicians for the change, there is no hope. At the same time, Americans instinctively understand that if we can unleash the collective wisdom and entrepreneurial spirit of the American people, there are no limits to what we can accomplish. In this environment, it would be wise for all Republicans to remember that their team didn't win, the other team lost. Heading into 2012, voters will remain ready to vote against the party in power unless they are given a reason not to do so. Elected politicians also should leave their ideological baggage behind because voters don't want to be governed from the left, the right, or even the center. They want someone in Washington who understands that the American people want to govern themselves.


This is the last stand people.

Friday, October 29, 2010

My Generation is complex...

Normally I could care less about Red Star (Star Tribune) editorials. But the"Talkin bout 'my' generation by Alexandra Petri really got me going... below is the editorial in full, below that will be my response.

Millennials don't go to rallies. ¶ Sign petitions? Please. ¶ Once we were in a protest, but only because we had to walk through it to get to a Lady Gaga concert. March for a cause? Only if "march" means "walk in a determined fashion" and "cause" means "to buy that new frozen yogurt that is so popular these days." Call us Generation I. I for irony, iPhones and the Internet. I for instant gratification. I for idiosyncratic, inventive, impertinent. We're all these things, and so are our idols -- the Onion, "The Colbert Report," "The Daily Show."

That's why we're pouring onto the Mall on Saturday to celebrate the restoration of all things sane, sarcastic and Stewart. Recently, pundit Charles Murray accused us of being part of the "New Elite." Yet what binds us is not a common experience or similar genetic stock, as he claimed, but our mind-set -- a staunch and unstinting refusal to take anything seriously.

It's not that Millennials don't believe some things are serious. We'll make It Gets Better videos or perform comedy for disaster relief. But sum up our lives in a phrase? The Importance of Never Being Too Earnest. We know what happens to people who take themselves seriously. They become bent and broken with care and develop arterial plaque. Sometimes they're elected to political office. "In America, any boy may become president," Adlai Stevenson noted. "And I suppose it's just one of the risks he takes." We don't like the sound of that. Forget the years in which people in sweater-sets earnestly pushed toward the front of the class. These days, the whole class wants to sit in the back row and lob spitballs. After someone discovered the mystical secret of doing things ironically, we felt a great weight lift from our shoulders. Now, we dwell in thickets of inverted commas. Want us to come to a rally? Better make it a "rally." Want us to testify before Congress? Only if we can do it in character. Someone more cynical than I might say our salient characteristic can be reduced to an overwhelming desire to avoid looking silly. But there's more to it than that.

As a Millennial, my greatest fear is that someday I might accidentally say something that offends someone. I am so aware of this that the only group I feel safe writing vaguely offensive generalizations about is illiterate people. (If you are reading this aloud to an illiterate friend, please, stop two sentences ago!) That's the unforgivable sin in our book. Affairs? We'll cope. Addictions? Sure. But say something earnestly racist, homophobic or misogynistic, and watch everyone's affection evaporate. "I'm just quoting Mel Gibson," you scream. But it's too late. Throw quotations around it, however, and everyone heaves a sigh of relief. That's how satire has risen to the top of the food chain. Millennials give comics the kind of adulation past generations reserved for musicians. We respect Lady Gaga. But we'll travel hundreds of miles to touch the hem of Jon Stewart's robe. That's why my demographic is coming, en masse, to Washington for the Stewart-Colbert rally. More than 200,000 have RSVP'd on Facebook (almost as many as have registered to vote). You may have heard a Millennial say, "Ah, I'm not voting this year." But have you ever heard one say, "That Jon Stewart guy is not funny at all"? Never. The Earth might explode! Woodstock didn't define a generation because everyone showed up or those who did were a perfectly representative sample. It defined a generation because, for a few days, it bottled its peculiar zeitgeist.

To Generation I, for whom life exists so we can put as many things as possible in quotes, this "rally" is the closest we will ever get to a love-in. It's a "like-in." For Millennials -- wearing properly supportive bras, which they will not burn, and carrying reasonable signs -- it's the ultimate antiprotest. Still, there's a nervous frisson of truthiness behind all this. The Post recently quoted a media professor saying of Stewart, "He's a progressive, but his bias is towards reasonableness." When it comes to opinions, that's about as far as any of us can go. We're clinging to our satire as we've heard some people cling to their guns and religion. The problem is that great ages of satire are seldom great ages of, well, anything else.


Ok wow where to begin...

I am stuck with my millenial generation whether or not I like it. I look at my generation the way I imagine people growing up in the 1960's looked at the idiots going to Woodstock and thinking, wait these people are going to be involved in running this country 10 or 20 years from now?! Were DOOMED! But they "normalized" and became part of society but will we? I am not convinced that some of my generation will, they care too much about reality tv, celebrities and who they are screwing and why, and Facebook (I say this as a Facebook addict since 2005 myself).
I am proud to say that I went to Tea Party rallies back in April 2009 and 2010. No, I didn't dress up in colonial garb but I did feel refreshed that some people on the right side of the political spectrum finally cared enough to show up and voice their concerns. I was very discouraged after the 2008 elections. "Hope and Change" "Yes we Can!" I never bought any of that shit. I actually listened to what Obama was saying and who he hung out with (Billy Ayers and Rev. Wright) because I remember the old Chinese proverb: you can tell the character of a man by the company he keeps. And the company he kept didn't concern me, it scared the ever living shit out of me. But debating with kids my age was useless. They just didn't care, and they still don't which is frieghtening. Obama and company are selling, or should I say spending, our futures in some deluded Keynesian fantasyland to get us out of the recession we now see us in.
As a Millenial my greatest fear is not offending someone. I have been called a racist, homophobe, intolerant, etc, so many times that the words have lost all meaning to me. They are thrown around by the Left so much that anyone called that just laughs in thier faces now, because they cannot debate which is sad. I love debating and even when it gets heated I still get enjoyment out of it. My concern is is that by the time my generation wakes up to what is going on it will be too late. College graduates are having trouble finding jobs because they are applying along with millions of laid off workers that have experience. Unemployment among 16-24 year olds was at 19.1% and that was in July! No wonder a lot of kids are moving back home after they graduate. The one good thing I can say is that at least were not France. Imagine kids protesting the raising of the age at which you can get social security benefits, because I cannot. I think our generation is at least smart enough to recognize that by the time they retire Social Security will be a distant memory, something our elders had and frittered away because they liked raiding it for their special pet projects. And I'm not just blaming Democrats on this one, Republicans are just as much to blame.
I watch Stewart and Colbert and I do enjoy their shows but their views on things are so clearly slanted but I recognize that. Do other kids? They are being unintenionally indoctrinated and thinking that Colbert is the sterotypical Republican (even if I do kind of agree with him on some things) and not a caricture of many different (ok maybe mainly Bill O'Rielly) personalities. I listen to talk radio, I watch Fox News too so I get the opposite ends of the spectrum. I try to watch MSNBC but can't, its just too vicious. I do watch CNN sometimes because they have toned it down and are fair. And Fox News is a lot more fair than people give it credit for, people get into big verbal fistfights on there and it is fun and educational.
The election on Tuesday will be the most important in my lifetime, I mean that as in there will never (probably) be another election this important as long as I live. My message to my generation is, stay home, get high and watch The Daily Show. Leave voting to those who know what's at stake since you clearly don't.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

SOTW #20 Porn Star Dancing (Extended Uncensored)

When I say I'm conservative I don't usually include the social aspects of it. Oh and if you can't tell by the title this is NSFW unless you have a really cool boss.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

bullying...

Ok so it seems EVERYONE has an opinion about bullying these days and the recent suicides of gay teens has brought national media attention to it. I am sad that it took a couple of gay kids offing themselves for people to pay attention finally, this has to have been a major issue for at least a decade and has only gotten worse since technology has advanced. You may sense a little tension in my tone and you would be right. I was bullied as a kid growing up, I have told very few people this (I'm not sure if I've even told my parents) but from ab out 12-14 I thought about suicide CONSTANTLY. My friends at school, the few that I had, were little help and my life was a living hell. Honestly the only reason I didn't attempt it is because I am an only child and I thought it wouldn't be fair to my parents leaving them childless. Yes that is exactly what I thought, if I had a brother or sister I could very well not be here writing this today. Let me be clear while I view the gay kids commiting suicide as tragic I think a person who is being builled for being fat, tiny, geeky is JUST AS TRAGIC. I have never been a fan of the LBGT community and it seems that they are mostly using these suicides as a tool to push their agenda. I will not let them co-opt this. BULLYING OF ANY TYPE IS 100% WRONG AND NEVER EXCUSABLE PERIOD END OF STORY.
Some tips I have for kids out there if they are reading this is to get a support group. The next bit of advice I never totally went through but I wish I had because it could have made my life a lot easier in the long run, knock the fucker out. Yeah you heard me, if a kid is bullying you take a stand and punch him/her. This will draw attention to this and it will help in the long run trust me. Finally go to your parents and a teacher if nothing else works.
And honestly guys and girls who are being bullied it may not even seem to make sense what I am about to say but trust me it usually works out this way. You WILL be stronger for this in the end, ok I know there are a few amount of people who crawl up and be pushed around for the rest of their life but they are just weak. I know that may seem cold but whatever, if you have read this blog at all you know I am not PC. You will have so much self-confidence that its almost hard to describe.
Also, you have to stand up for other people too, if you see bullying happening go over and stop it because remember how you felt? It sucks doesn't it and how great would it have felt if someone came to your aid? You probably would have made a new friend and by doing this you may make a new friend possibly.
Folks, take a stand against ALL BULLYING. Don't let the fags co-opt this thing that would be wrong.

Monday, October 25, 2010

They hate us, they really do...

One thing I have found amazing in my time in politics is how insulting the left can be with people they disagree with. Republicans aren't perfect either but at least they don't insult you. This is a great little dialogue between the American people and the Democrats thats sums up perfectly the last 21 or so months.

AMERICANS: “So, the economy is pretty bad and there’s high employment. You think you can do something about that?”

DEMOCRATS AND OBAMA: “We can spend a trillion dollars we don’t have on pork and stuff.”

AMERICANS: “No … that’s not what we want. We’d really like you not to do that.”

DEMOCRATS: “You’re stupid. We’re doing it anyway.”

AMERICANS: “That’s not going to help us get jobs!”

DEMOCRATS: “Sure it will; millions of them … though they may be invisible. You’ll have to trust us they exist. And guess what else we’ll do: We’ll create a giant new government program to take over health care.”

AMERICANS: “That has nothing to do with jobs!”

DEMOCRATS: “We don’t care about that anymore. We really want a giant new health care program. We’re sure you’ll love it.”

AMERICANS: “Don’t pass that bill. You hear me? Absolutely do not pass that bill.”

DEMOCRATS: “Believe me; you’ll love it. It has … well, I don’t know what exactly is in the bill, but we’re sure it’s great.”

AMERICANS: “Listen to me: DO. NOT. PASS. THAT. BILL.”

DEMOCRATS: “You’re not the boss of me! We’re doing it anyway!”

AMERICANS: “Look what you did! Now the economy is way worse, we’re even deeper in debt, and we have a bunch of new laws we don’t want!”

DEMOCRATS: “You’re racist.”

AMERICANS: “Wha … How is that racist?”

DEMOCRATS: “Now you’re getting violent! Stop being violent and racist, you ignorant hillbillies! And remember to vote Democrat in November.”


Yep that about sums it up, but here is something from the Telegraph (got to have an outsiders view looking in on this) about the view Obama and the dems have of the American people.

So what is the closing argument of Barack Obama's Democrats before next Tuesday's midterm elections? The President is no longer the self-proclaimed "hope-monger" of 2008, who vaingloriously declared that his vanquishing Hillary Clinton marked "the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal". He has stopped patting voters on the back for choosing, by voting for him, to listen not to their doubts or fears but to their "greatest hopes and highest aspirations". Instead, he is berating Americans (most of whom now do not believe he deserves a second term) for not being able to "think clearly" because they're "scared". Having failed to change Washington or, as he promised that night in St Paul, Minnesota in June 2008, to provide "good jobs to the jobless" (unemployment was 7.7 per cent when he took office and is 9.6 per cent now), Obama is changing tack. Boiled down, the new Obama message to Americans is: you're too stupid to overcome your fears. To be fair, it's not entirely new. During the 2008 campaign, Obama was caught on tape at a San Francisco fund-raiser saying it was not surprising that voters facing economic hardship "get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them". At a fund-raiser in Massachusetts this month, Obama spoke of Democrats having "facts and science and argument" on their side. As opposed, presumably, to the lies, superstition and prejudice that Republicans rely on.
This year, Democrats have embraced with gusto the notion that Republicans, and by extension anyone thinking of voting for them, are dimwits. Their mirth over the likes of Tea Party figures like Christine O'Donnell, the former anti-masturbation activist who once she had "dabbled" in witchcraft and is now a no-hoper Senate candidate in Delaware, seems to know no bounds. The most chortling of all about the populist Tea Party and its anti-tax, anti-government uprising against the Republican establishment can be found on the shows of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, the edgy liberal satirists on Comedy Central. Mocking Republican candidates last week, Stewart declared the midterm elections as "the best chance ever for a bowl of fresh fruit" to be elected. Three days before the elections, Stewart will hold a "Rally to Restore Sanity" in Washington on the same day as Colbert, who adopts the character of a Right-wing talk show host, leads a "March to Keep Fear Alive". The thinly-disguised message: Republicans are crazies who trade on fear.
In choosing California and Massachusetts, two of the most liberal states in the union, to demean ordinary Americans during election campaigns, Obama did not display a whole lot of his much-vaunted intelligence. But Obama's decision to plug Stewart's rally approvingly and appear on his show three days beforehand is even more foolish. In the 1990s, Democrats managed to get away from their image as "eggheads" in the 1950s or "pointy-headed liberals" in the 1970s. Bill Clinton spoke like a Good Ol' Boy from the Deep South, ate junk food and enjoyed trashy women. He was clever, but he did not look down on people.
Obama, by contrast, has become a parody of the Ivy League liberal smugly content with his own intellectual superiority and pitying the poor idiots who disagree with him. It is an approach that shares much with the default anti-Americanism of British and European elites, who love to mock the United States as a country full of gun-toting, bible-clutching morons. David Cameron has made nods to this sniffy condescension, speaking of the Sarah Palin phenomenon as being "hard for us to understand" (how about giving it a go, Dave?) and describing American conservatism, inaccurately, as moving in a "very culture war direction". This might be part of the reason why he seems to have hit it off with Obama.
The problem for Obama and the Democrats is that belittling the Tea Party movement, which is taking hold of much of Middle America, merely fuels the popular sense that the party in power is out of touch. It also highlights the reluctance of Obama and the Democrats to discuss the Wall Street bail-out, economic stimulus and health care bills because they know they are not vote winners. Joining the Europeans in mocking ordinary Americans for their supposed idiocy may play well at big-dollar fund-raisers. In adopting this as a political strategy, however, the Democrats could be the ones who end up looking stupid.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

the Multiculturalism cult...

I was going to write a scathing article about how "multiculturalism" has failed like Angela Merkel so acutely noted over the weekend. I have known this since my 97-98% white, catholic, private school hired a "diversity coordinator" it made me sick. I made the argument that if the school was serious about it they would be funding scholarships to kids rather than pay some retard to teach one class and lecture us about how we are all a bunch of hicks. It was really insulting actually and I think they eventually got rid of him. Anyway, Thomas Sowell does a much more better job of talking about this than I ever could, here is his RCP article from yesterday...


Somebody eventually had to say it -- and German chancellor Angela Merkel deserves credit for being the one who had the courage to say it out loud. Multiculturalism has "utterly failed." Multiculturalism is not just a recognition that different groups have different cultures. We all knew that, long before multiculturalism became a cult that has spawned mindless rhapsodies about "diversity," without a speck of evidence to substantiate its supposed benefits. In Germany, as in other countries in Europe, welcoming millions of foreign workers who insist on remaining foreign has created problems so obvious that only the intelligentsia could fail to see them. It takes a high IQ to evade the obvious. "We kidded ourselves for a while," Chancellor Merkel said, but now it was clear that the attempt to build a society where people of very different languages and cultures could "live side-by-side" and "enjoy each other" has "failed, utterly failed."
This is not a lesson for Germany alone. In countries around the world, and over the centuries, peoples with jarring differences in language, cultures and values have been a major problem and, too often, sources of major disasters for the societies in which they co-exist. Even the tragedies and atrocities associated with racial differences in racist countries have been exceeded by the tragedies and atrocities among people with clashing cultures who are physically indistinguishable from one another, as in the Balkans or Rwanda.
Among the ways that people with different cultures have managed to minimize frictions have been (1) mutual cultural accommodations, even while not amalgamating completely, and (2) living separately in their own enclaves. Both of these approaches are anathema to the multicultural cultists. Expecting any group to adapt their lifestyles to the cultural values of the larger society around them is "cultural imperialism" according to the multicultural cult. And living in separate neighborhoods is considered to be so terrible that there are government-financed programs to take people from high-crime slums and put them in subsidized housing in middle-class neighborhoods. Multiculturalists condemn people's objections to transplanting hoodlums, criminals and dysfunctional families into the midst of people who may have sacrificed for years to be able to escape from living among hoodlums, criminals and dysfunctional families. The actual direct experience of the people who complain about the consequences of these social experiments is often dismissed as mere biased "perceptions" or "stereotypes," if not outright "racism." But some of the strongest complaints have come from middle-class blacks who have fled ghetto life, only to have the government transplant ghetto life back into their midst.
The absorption of millions of immigrants from Europe into American society may be cited as an example of the success of multiculturalism. But, in fact, they were absorbed in ways that were the direct opposite of what the multicultural cult is recommending today. Before these immigrants were culturally assimilated to the norms of American society, they were by no means scattered at random among the population at large. On New York's lower east side, Hungarian Jews lived clustered together in different neighborhoods from Romanian Jews or Polish Jews -- and German Jews lived away from the lower east side. When someone suggested relieving the overcrowding in the lower east side schools by transferring some of the children to a school in an Irish neighborhood that had space, both the Irish and the Jews objected. None of this was peculiar to America. When immigrants from southern Italy to Australia moved into neighborhoods where people from northern Italy lived, the northern Italians moved out. Such scenarios could be found in countries around the world.
It was in later generations, after the children and grandchildren of the immigrants to America were speaking English and living lives more like the lives of other Americans, that they spread out to live and work where other Americans lived and worked. This wasn't multiculturalism. It was common sense.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Wait what?

Ok being part of the campaign for a massive Republican underdog has caused me to become somewhat jaded and managing expectations, even in this heavily Republican cycle, but when ABC news has the 8th district as leaning Democrat you know this is going to be something. The advantage we have over the 8th district in our race is that were about 1/20 the size of it so the GOTV activities will be easier to coordinate and we have just as strong a candidate in Teresa as Chip is up against Jim Oberstar. The big difference is that Oberstar actually has brainpower, unlike the current congresscritter that represents (and I use that term loosely) the 4th CD. Folks were in for an amazing wave. Keep on attacking the Chamber of Commerce Obama, please.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Can it get worse for the Dems?

Back in 2006 imagine if some big Republican donor and financier had said "I can't stop the Democrats and the wave they are generating" that would have been deflating right? Well George motherfucking Soros just basically said that to the New York Times of all places. Looking good for us Republicans to take over in about 23 days

Friday, October 01, 2010

Why Repulicans are (probably) going to clean House Nov. 2nd

In trying to figure out how to gauge the mid-term elections now I have read a Dick Morris piece that is super optimistic about Republican prospects and a piece linked on Drudge that someone said the Dems will keep both the House and Senate. I didn't want to use either article as a source because they were the extremes of each opinion. This piece on RCP by Arnold Ahlert articulates mine, and a lot of conservative/independent/tea party opinions about how the last 4 years have played out. Here it is...

Unless something totally unforeseen occurs, Democrats are poised to take a real beating in November. Their response to the impending disaster has run the gamut. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is in denial: "One thing I know for sure is that Democrats will retain their majority in the House of Representatives." Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is condescending: "We have an electorate that doesn't always pay that much attention to what's going on, so people are influenced by a simple slogan rather than the facts or the truth or what's happening." President Obama is angry: "It is inexcusable for any Democrat or progressive right now to stand on the sidelines in this midterm election." Why is the electorate ready to kick Democrats to the curb? Here's why:

* An "unstimulated" economy. The original Mother of All Stimulus packages, $787 billion dollars, quickly grew to an astounding $865 billion. It wasn't enough. Congress pumped out another $26 billion in "supplemental" stimulus in August. The results? Unemployment in the private sector remains well above the eight percent Democrats promised, even as public sector workers who support Democrats were rewarded; our Democratically-controlled Congress has amassed more debt in the last four years than nearly the previous two hundred and thirty combined; the Keynesian economic model Democrats stand by is a colossal failure; the Summer of Recovery was a propaganda fiasco.

Wow there is the understatement of the year, I actually have some liberal friends that say the "stimulus" wasn't big enough. I have no response to that, I can only shake my head.

* The health care bill. The absolute epitome of ideological, public-be-damned arrogance. A horrendous compendium of bribes, exploding bureaucracy, runaway costs, written in secret and unread by those who passed it. It includes a mandate, likely un-Constitutional, forcing people to buy health insurance or pay a fine. The same administration which originally claimed the commerce clause of the Constitution made such a fine possible is now saying that the federal governments's "power to tax" justifies it. Irrelevant. 60% of Americans want this monstrosity repealed, ASAP.
60% didn't want it in the first place. I still can't believe the arrogance the Dems showed in this. They knew better than us, their stupid subjects. I have never understood the left strategy of calling people dumb. How is that supposed to help get you elected, sure some people are dumb but they usually don't like to be called it to their face and in politics isn't the goal for people to like you to get elected? And in debating people calling them dumb because they don't agree with you is not only arrogant but poor arguing technique. It probably means the "dumb" person is winning the debate.

* The federal lawsuit against the state of Arizona. Again, it's the arrogance, stupid. Despite all the hectoring from Democrats and the Obama administration about racist this, and xenophobic that, fair-minded Americans recognized four things: people have a right to protect their life and property, and if the federal government can't or won't do it, they have a right to do it themselves; the idea that anyone opposing the "rights" of illegal aliens is a bigot is nonsense on stilts; the ruling class in Washington, D.C. is holding genuine border control hostage to "comprehensive reform;" the glaring double-standard of suing Arizona for violating federal immigration statues, even as the feds turn a blind eye to hundreds of "sanctuary cities" with illegal protection directives unquestionably in conflict with federal law.
Not to mention they ratted them out to the U.N. There's a way to win people over.

* The demonization of the Tea Party movement. Take your pick: teabaggers, racists, angry white men, fringe elements, bigots, Astro-turfers, etc. etc. Democrats and the media have tried every one, and every one has been a miserable failure for one overwhelmingly simple reason: decent Americans know they're decent, and getting insulted by Democrats running the country into the ground has only stiffened their resolve. Progressives want to demonize people who believe in smaller government, fiscal responsibility and a desire to return to Constitutional principles? Why not attack people who believe in guns, and religion too? Oh wait. The president already did that as well.
Can't say enough about this. This movement could not only make dems a permanant minority party it could also kill the Republican party if they don't come through these next couple years.

* A hopelessly compromised media. Air America tanked, CNN is tanking, and ABC, NBC and CBS news programs have been shedding viewers at historically unprecedented rates-even as Fox and the Wall Street Journal prosper. Americans don't mind people in the media expressing their opinions, as long as they're characterized as opinions, but they seethe when such opinions are portrayed as "hard news." They get even angrier when certain stories are "omitted" by those same organizations, especially when Americans recognize such omissions are calculated to protect the progressive agenda. I wonder if it occurs to either Democrats or their media water-carriers that a majority Americans may savor whacking both groups in November. Depressed looks on the faces of Nancy Pelosi and Katie Couric? In theater circles, that's known as a "two-fer."
It's a joke, can't wait to look at the liberals on TV November 2nd watching their majorities slip away.

* The Ground Zero mosque. Yet another reminder of the contempt progressives and their media enablers have for ordinary Americans who had the "temerity" to allow their feelings to be known. Despite every attempt to characterize these Americans as Islamo-phobic bigots, the public wasn't buying, again for one overwhelmingly simple reason: decent Americans once again demonstrated their decency by separating the legality of the project from the appropriateness of it.
It's simmered down but I can't believe Obama even bothered to comment on it.

* The complete disconnect between the First Family and ordinary Americans. The golfing, the soirees, and the high-priced vacations have created the perception that we are living through another "let them eat cake" moment in history. On Tuesday, the president called the public schools in Washington, D.C. a "'struggling' system that doesn't measure up to the needs of first daughters, Sasha and Malia." Those would be the same public schools Congressional Democrats tossed 3,300 low-income kids back into when they killed funding for vouchers that had freed those kids from D.C.'s educational ghetto. The First Lady is hectoring Americans to eat healthier. Perhaps more Americans would if they could afford to: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated in their Producer Price Index that the price of food increased 2.4% for March 2010. That's the biggest increase in almost 30 years.
And people said Bush was bad.

* The war on terror. A politically correct contingency operation against unnamed insurgents with a specific draw-down date? Democrats once again prove that all the talk about Afghanistan being the "good war" was complete rubbish. They want out, and victory-along with the heroic efforts of our men and women in harm's way-be damned. Once again: has America ever fought another war where they knew the exact location of the enemy, had the ability to inflict possibly irreparable damage on them-and decided to split the difference instead? If you answered "Vietnam," another progressively-instigated catastrophe resulting in the deaths of fifty-eight thousand American soldiers and three million innocent Asians, go to the head of the class. And when is that civilian trial of the 9/11 perpetrators scheduled to begin?
And the fact he said "we can absorb another terrorist attack" to Bob Woodward creeps me the fuck out.

* Czars and nationalization. The Obama administration and Congressional Democrats may bristle when Americans call them socialists, but the nationalization of banks, car and insurance companies, student loans and healthcare sure isn't free-market capitalism. Neither is wiping out oil jobs in Louisiana with a government-mandated ban on offshore drilling-after the feds completely bungled their role in cleaning up the spill which engendered it. Unelected czars who answer to no one but the president, along with out-of-control government agencies such as the EPA have made it clear to many Americans that this administration often considers Congress a completely unnecessary component of governance, especially if they don't kowtow to the president's agenda.
I can't wait for the supbeonas that will be issued to drag these czars before committees to testify about what they actually do.

* "Unexceptional" America. Progressive contempt for the values and traditions which make this the greatest country on earth can no longer be disguised. An American president who "believe(s) in American exceptionalism, just as I suspect that the Brits believe in British exceptionalism and the Greeks believe in Greek exceptionalism" has made it plain that this is not a great nation which needs tweaking, but a fundamentally flawed one needing a complete progressive make-over. Once one understands this basic premise, everything this administration and Democratically-controlled Congress does makes sense. All of it centers around the ridiculous premise that America owes the world an apology for any number of shortcomings, many of which can only be alleviated by government-mandated "social justice." That would be the same social justice which demanded-and still demands-that Americans manifestly unqualified to own homes be given mortgages, regardless.
Fuck you Obama, we are great and we can survive even you, hopefully.

Unknown to the majority of Americans, this precise mindset was part of the financial "reform" bill which also requires banks to lend a certain percentage of capital to minority-owned businesses, even if it means lowering their lending standards. Apparently progressives won't be satisfied with their odious social-engineering schemes until every sector of the American economy bears a striking resemblance to the housing sector. So far, Americans support financial reform because it's been framed as "Main Street versus "Wall Street." It's not. Like every other initiative undertaken by this Congress and this administration, it's the elevation of irresponsible and dishonest Americans over those willing to accept the consequences of their own behavior.

There you have it. Democratic control for four years in Congress, and two in the White House has been exactly what many predicted: an ideologically-driven disaster of epic proportions. For years, progressives obfuscated their true intentions, because even they knew most Americans couldn't stomach them. The elections of 2006 and 2008 changed everything. Progressives bought into their own hype, believing they had pulled off a multi-generational transformation of the American mindset. As a result, they showed Americans their true colors: unbridled arrogance, utter contempt for the average citizen's intellect, and a ham-fisted, never let a crisis go to waste determination to bend the electorate to their will, using government as a club.

That's why they're going down in November. And the most satisfying aspect of the whole scenario is this: despite every attempt they've made to blame anyone and everyone else for their problems, they brought it on themselves.

I couldn't agree more. They showed their true colors and now we can crush them. Potentially forever. Well the progressives at least.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

NY-Gov race is actually getting interesting

The New York race for Governor has actually gotten quite interesting over the past few weeks. There has been mudslinging, on a literal junior high level on both sides .Andrew Cuomo even called Paladino an asshole yesterday. Most people would find this disgusting, appaling, and downright childish. I am interested, intrigued, and actually laughing at this. Folks this might be the new face of politics in the Tea Party era. The Deleware Senate race will get this ugly soon, both California Senate and Governors races will be heading down this path, and even our own governors race will turn this way when the 527's start unloading on Dayton. Why do I like this? Because it shows how much both people want the seat, they will do ANYTHING to get it, which means they know how important this seat is. Albany has been a mess for years in NY. The only state where corruption is more prevalent than in NY is IL and I think even that might be debateable. Paladino is a fire-breathing tea party candidate, who frankly looks like a Mafia Don but I digress, and while pre-primary polls had him down as much as 55-25 to Cuomo (and yes he is Mario's kid), Monday a Rasmussen Reports poll had Cuomo up 55-38 which raised some eyebrows because Cuomo was expected to be able to waltz into the Governors mansion no problem. But dun-dun-dun! Today a poll was released that has to have the Cuomo camp sweating bullets. From the article... oh and billioniare RINO turned "independent" (aka Democrat lite) NYC mayor Bloomberg came out and endorsed Cuomo today, can you say desperate (interesting note nbcnewyork.com has a thing on the side that asks people their reactions to the article, 55% are laughing, 22% are thrilled and 8% are furious)
Saying anger is not a governing strategy, Mayor Bloomberg Tuesday endorsed Democrat Andrew Cuomo as the best candidate to be New York's next chief executive.

"I think Andrew Cuomo is the right person," Bloomberg said at a press event at City Hall Park.

The endorsement comes as a Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday shows a spike in support for Republican Carl Paladino, who was once a longshot to win the GOP line in the governor's race.

The new poll shows the attorney general ahead of his upstate opponent by a mere six points --49 percent to 43 percent -- indicating a gap much smaller than anticipated. Cuomo leads 87 percent to 8 percent among Democrats while Paladino lures Republicans (83 percent to 13 percent) and independent voters (49 percent to 43 percent). He's also overwhelmingly backed by the Tea Party, although only 18 percent of likely voters in the state consider themselves part of the movement.

Stay tuned folks, were not even done with Act I in this great public play yet.

Monday, September 20, 2010

delusion thy name is Democrats...

Ok, I am doing this mainly to show how even in a year where Democrats could (and I empahasize COULD) lose 100 Congressional seats, they are talking about trying to pick up a seat that has been held by the GOP since 1960! Check out this article from a "Professor" at Hamline
HAHAHAHA. Ok first off CNN took this race off 100 most competitive races 3 weeks ago . Second, he has a 9:1 CASH ON HAND advantage. Third, Meffert is an idiot. I say that not because he is a democrat but because he held a townhall OUTSIDE of CD3!. And I've met Erik on numerous occasions. He is a nice guy and you would not think he's a politician at first glance. One final thing about Meffert, even his supporters can't get excited. This was the attendence at a recent townhall.

Paulsen has zero to worry about. 60-40 and that might be pessemistic.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

The origin of the tea party...

This iconic speech from Network is the origin of everything that the Tea Party emboldens today. Tomorrow, I will reveal the most recent speech that motivated this movement, hint: I posted it right after it happened and knew something big was going to happen.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

.A fractured party...

No I'm not talking about the Republicans who had their own taste of tea-party retribution when a couple of party favorites got KO'ed in the primaries Tuesday I'm talking about Democrats in Congress (link in title). From CNN...

Washington (CNN) – Thirty-one House Democrats, most of whom face tough re-election bids this fall, have signed a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer urging them to extend expiring tax breaks for all income levels, including the wealthy.

Pelosi and other House Democratic leaders have made it clear they support President Obama's proposal to vote on a bill that only renews tax breaks for those making $250,000 and under. But with the midterm elections less than two months away, leaders have not yet decided whether they will schedule a vote on the legislation before voters go to the polls.

The letter–written by Utah Rep. Jim Matheson, Illinois Rep. Melissa Bean, Virginia Rep. Glenn Nye and Michigan Rep. Gary Peters–states that after listening to economists, small businesses and families over recent weeks they are concerned that "raising any taxes right now could negatively impact economic growth."


"We believe in times of economic recovery it makes good sense to maintain things as they are in the short term, to provide families and businesses the certainty required to plan and make sound budget decisions. Providing this certainty will give small businesses, the backbone of our economic recovery, confidence and stability," the lawmakers wrote.

CNN reported that the four authors were circulating a draft of the letter earlier this week. But with more than 30 Democrats now signed on to the final letter, Democratic leaders will face increasing pressure to address the concerns of these moderate members.

Republican congressional leaders have been making similar arguments, pushing for a two year freeze on all current tax rates.

Earlier on Wednesday, Hoyer told reporters he could consider proposals to extend tax cuts for higher wage earners, but he also stressed his strong support for just renewing the middle income tax breaks.

Later Wednesday, Hoyer released a written statement noting he was simply saying he was willing to talk to others about their positions.

"Unfortunately, the reports of my answer implied a willingness to support an extension of Bush policies," he wrote. "That is incorrect."


Things are looking better every day.

Monday, September 13, 2010

You have GOT to be KIDDING me...

I'm pretty sure when the other side is trying to tap into a pop tween idol to get kids motivated to vote in these elections that you have lost, on so many levels I don't know where to begin. This article, swear to God, is from Politico. But if you had shown this to me I would have guessed it was from the Onion.

Internet-savvy types know that teen heartthrob Justin Bieber pretty much rules the web. Just last week, rumor spread that Bieber’s fan base was so active on Twitter that the microblogging website has servers dedicated just to him. Twitter didn’t confirm, but they didn’t deny it, either.


The takeaway? If you're trying to get a message to go viral, your success rate will surely be higher if you can somehow tie-in the Biebs.


So that’s just what Campus Progress, the college spinoff of the Center for American Progress, decided to do to get people to vote in the midterms.


The organization is highlighting a submission to its VoteAgain2010 video contest that argues, while Bieber can't vote in our midterms (he's both too young and too Canadian), shouldn't you?


"This isn't your standard election year video of celebrities asking you to vote," the ad says. "It's us, asking you to vote for celebrities who can't, celebrities like Justin Bieber. Bieber's too young to vote, yet whomever we elect in the 2010 midterm elections will impact his future and ours. ... So tell your parents, your grandparents, your Facebook friends ... If they won't do it for you, ask them to do it for Bieber." (Click below to watch.)

ED: Try not to laugh too hard, but they are trying to be serious here... I think...


"We're trying to leverage Bieber fever," Campus Progress's Sara Haile-Mariam told POLITICO. "Most of his fans are 12 years old – we acknowledge that." Still, they hope that Bieber fans will “tell their parents. ... The hope is to create something that goes viral and gets young people to be aware of the election."


Of course, Haile-Mariam admits that part of the motivation was less purely political. "We consider ourselves big Bieber fans," she confessed, adding that they hope Bieber will give some link love to


their project via his Twitter page (and his over 5 million followers).


But what if — gasp! — Bieber could vote and choose to vote ... Republican?!? How would that sit with the progressive group?


"That would actually be kind of hilarious," said Campus Progress's Katie Andriulli.


"We would still love Bieber if he was a conservative," said Haile-Mariam. "But he's young...there's still hope."


Sometimes you just have to laugh, otherwise you would cry, here are some of the gem comments...

So kids that CAN vote should because Bieber can't? Is that the pitch? So, a college freshman should vote because this high school freshman can't? Whoa, are kids today really stupid enough to fall for that lame attempt? Usually, by age 18, kids today, even kids educated in our public schools are smarter than that.


Only an idiot would vote for someone because their 12 year old told them to. "Do it for Bieber." No, make that an imbecile.


Exploiting the underaged for political gain. Sounds like the perfect strategy for the Democrats being as how no intelligent voter (read: 18 and up) would ever pay attention to this person and the only segment of the population stupid enough to care are 12-14 year old girls. Oh wait, another bio talent celebrity bring marketed into a position of super-stardom, and loved only by those who don't pay taxes and live off their parents. Priceless.

Desparation takes many forms...

So let me understand this... the Democrats want teenagers (who yet to have a clue about anything IMPORTANT) to tell their parents what to do and how to vote because of some kid named Justin Bieber, a 16 year old Canadian singing sensation, who owns and drives a $250K Lamborghini Roadster and makes millions of dollars? Is the person they want to YOU to connect with? I thought the Democrats (the President in particular) have been telling us that rich people suck, and that the little people are the ones who matter most? It's a bizarre gasp on the DNC's part. People don't care about Justin Bieber, but what they care about is how the taxes they pay keep going up (Federally, State wide and locally) and they are seeing less and less for their contributions. The bottom 40 million tax payers get all their money back and don't pay taxes, so I guess this Administration is now panicked and needs to pick up a Canadian spokesperson because among the 280 million Americans they can't find someone else. How incredibly desperate.

Thursday, September 09, 2010

Obama: If Americans are smart they will vote Democrat...

Did he say that exactly? Well no, but it was definitely implied. This was from Mark Knolls (CBS news bitch, I mean reporter) tweet about an hour ago.

".Obama believes that if voters really understand the choice before them, Dems will retain control of the House. "

So if you are a moron go out and vote Republican people! I mean wow, they really don't get it. Can you imagine if Bush said something equivalent to this in 2006? This is too perfect. If you didn't think liberals were elitest before you should now.

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Political Geekery 101...

Trying to find a neutral pollster this election season is like trying to find another conservative here on campus to talk with (first day of classes, I had to say something) but time and again Larry Sabato does this with amazing accuracy. Here is his (long) and wonkish article from RCP

September 2, 2010
The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions
By Larry Sabato

For decades I've advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story-whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist facts into pretzels in order to produce a desired result must be avoided at all costs.

We've been patient and cautious here at the Crystal Ball as a year's worth of facts has accumulated. We've sifted the polls, cranked up the models, and watched the candidates and campaigns closely. All political observers have "gut feelings" about an election year, but feelings make for good songs and lousy predictions. Forecasting is an imprecise art. People who get too far ahead of the facts or are too insistent about what will happen are usually partisans-openly or in disguise.

The Crystal Ball's predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one.

2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate.

But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats' self-proclaimed "Recovery Summer" has become a term of derision, and to most voters-fair or not-it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.

Obama's job approval ratings have drifted down well below 50% in most surveys. The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction. While far less important, other controversies such as the mosque debate and immigration policy have made the climate worse for Democrats. Republican voters are raring to vote, their energy fueled by anti-Obama passion and concern over debt, spending, taxes, health care, and the size of government. Democrats are much less enthusiastic by almost every measure, and the Democratic base's turnout will lag. Plus, Democrats have won over 50 House seats in 2006 and 2008, many of them in Republican territory, so their exposure to any sort of GOP wave is high.

Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a "net" number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.

The seat switches are probably coming in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware (but only if the eventual GOP nominee is Rep. Mike Castle), Indiana, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We expect Republicans to pick off at least a couple of these states: California, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and Wisconsin. While it is possible that Republicans will lose one or two of their own open seats, the only 50-50 chance of that right now is in Florida-and it might not happen even there. There can also be unanticipated shockers if a GOP wave develops. While we rate Gov. Joe Manchin (D) the early favorite to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat, his Republican opponent, John Raese, is a self-funder in a strongly anti-Obama state.

The inescapable conclusion is that the Senate is on the bubble, with only a slight lean at Labor Day toward Democratic retention.

The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans' 2010 victory. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net +6 governorships. We now believe they will win +8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country.

Republicans are likely or even certain to gain the governorships in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. We believe the GOP candidates also have an edge in Illinois and Oregon-both of these quite surprising. Democrats will also pick up a few statehouses to cut their losses: Hawaii is near-certain, with fair to good shots in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Rhode Island (though we currently retain the last two as toss-ups).

There is no question that the ratings in some close races will change as scandals emerge in the coming sixty days or as the big primaries on September 14 occur. The contests listed only as "leaning" one way or the other are the most vulnerable to shift in the next two months. Unless an unexpected, extraordinary number of these changes are in favor of the Democrats, it is hard to see how Republicans can fail to do very well.

We still have 6 toss-ups for Senate (California, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and Wisconsin-seats held by the Democrats in all but Florida ). The 9 toss-ups for Governor are in California, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont-six currently held by GOP chief executives and three by Democrats. In the House, the Crystal Ball counts 29 toss-ups, 28 seats held in this Congress by Democrats and just one by Republicans.

As always, the Crystal Ball will make a guess in every contest before Election Day. Some will be moved sooner, and a few head-scratchers will only be categorized at the very last minute. We're proud of our record, with more than 98% of the contests called correctly over the decade-long life of the Crystal Ball. In some years, our overall seat changes in each category have been exactly on the button, and in 2008 we were a single electoral vote off the Obama-McCain finish of 365-173. But we fully admit here and now that, as always, we'll get some of them wrong. We truly believe our website motto: "He who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass." That's part of the fun of politics. Moreover, remembering the great Gallup goof of 1948, we know there's an election year somewhere up ahead when the Crystal Ball cracks so badly we will have to export it to Switzerland for expert repairs.

In 2006 and 2008 the Crystal Ball was full of good news for Democrats, while this one may cause a run on Prozac among our Democratic readers. Is there any way back for the Democrats in the eight remaining weeks?

A political historian always thinks of election-changing events from the past, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 which cut Democratic midterm losses a couple of weeks later, or the autumn 1998 GOP push for Bill Clinton's impeachment that backfired at the polls, eliminating expected GOP gains in the Senate and resulting in a drop of Republican seats in the House. We know what we don't know: Something big and unexpected can always drop from the skies. Naturally, it can work the other way, too-say, a substantial increase in unemployment or negative GDP growth just before Election Day.

If there isn't a dramatic development that has overarching political implications, then Democrats will have to depend on their financial edge, tested candidates, and leaders finding ways to motivate the troops to a far greater extent than we see today (or witnessed in the 2009 off-year elections).

Any shift will quickly show up in the generic ballot match-up among likely voters. Gallup's generic ballot question reads: "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district - the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" In a midterm election, only about 40% of the adults will come to the polls (or vote early), compared to 63% in the presidential contest of 2008. If average Democrats start to demonstrate interest in the election that is comparable to the intensity being shown by Republicans, the generic ballot response among the minority of Americans likely to participate in the midterm election will tighten. While a recent Gallup poll had the GOP leading the generic ballot by a massive 10 percent, on average Republicans are ahead by about 5 percentage points-still quite high by historic standards.

Overall, though, a strong bet is that 2010 will generate a substantial pendulum swing from the Democrats to the Republicans. It is not that Republicans are popular-most polls show the party even less liked than the Democrats. Many observers find it amazing that the less-liked party is on the verge of triumphing over the better-liked party. Nevertheless, in the time-honored American way, voters will be inclined to punish the party in-power by checking and balancing it with more members from the opposition party.

Each week we will update our ratings in each category, all the way to election eve, November 1st. In that sense, the predictions we make below are the general election's starting points, not the guaranteed finish. There is a lot of good politics to come in September and October, so stay tuned.

Friday, September 03, 2010

Ok, everyone calm down...

This Emmer story will blow over. For a comparison on how this happened here is the shitty pages story (with pictures, they are important, I guess...) of them, hyperventalating and ejaculating about this story.

Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer put his family front and center in his first television ad, his 20-year-old son Tripp making the pitch that his father is "always talking about cutting taxes and reforming government."

But City Pages has obtained Facebook photos of Tripp drinking at 19, two years away from the legal age to do so. Given Emmer's own controversial past with drinking--he has two DWI's and has championed the rights of DWI offenders in the Statehouse--it's no wonder the photos were scrubbed before dad announced his campaign for governor.

Apparently Tripp didn't learn his lesson: Just last month he pleaded guilty to underage drinking.

In the Emmer ad, the kids talk about their dad's ideas for cutting taxes and boosting job creation. The camera cuts to all three boys doing chores, and Tripp is shown taking out the trash.

Here's Tripp as he appears in the ad:


​But there's something about Emmer's past that doesn't make him so family-friendly. He has repeatedly had to publicly address his 1981 and 1991 DWI arrests. And as a state representative, he once authored legislation that would have made drunken driving records private after 10 years and allowed DWI offenders to keep their licenses until they're convicted.
Alliance for a Better Minnesota produced a DWI-themed attack ad that's been in heavy rotation. In it, Margaret Everson talks about the pain of losing her son, John, in a car crash caused by a drunken driver.

"When I heard that Tom Emmer sponsored a law to reduce penalties for drunk drivers, I was outraged," she says. "And then I read that Tom Emmer has been arrested twice himself for drunk driving. And this man wants to be governor?"

(I honestly think that disgusting ad has helped Tom more than hurt. That ad was the low point of this campaign until this fiasco)

This brings us to the photos of young Tripp. The source of the photos says they were obtained more than a year ago, at a time when Tripp's privacy preferences on Facebook made the images available to the public.

That also means he was 19 or younger when he was snapped power drinking with his bros and posing alongside a passed-out girl with a penis drawn on her face and arm in marker.

Given the All-American family image Emmer's trying to sell since the announcement of his gubernatorial run in 2009, it's easy to see why the photos have since disappeared from public view.

We've obscured the identities of the other people in the following images, as well as the identity of our source.











The last two screen shots are taken from Tripp Emmer's Facebook profile page when it was visible to the public. While it doesn't show drinking, it does suggest one very unusual campaign slogan for Tom Emmer's gubernatorial campaign.




A close up:


Favorite quote: "Don't blow your wad in the first period!" -- Thomas Emmer Jr.

In addition to excessive drinking, both father and son also share a passion for ice hockey.

BFD, I literally know dozens of kids that age that have been cited for that.

It appears young Tripp has already run afoul of the law for his underage drinking. Court records show that he was ticketed July 7 and pleaded guilty last month.


UPDATE: The Emmer campaign has issued a statement acknowledging Tripp's underage drinking, according to MPR.

"My son made a serious mistake and has paid the consequences," the statement said. "It was a mistake which many Minnesota families are all too familiar with. Like all the other challenges in life, our family is dealing with our son in this matter with humility, seriousness, and love."


Here is the MPR story, its unbiased, well compared to that piece of "journalism" above. I think my high school newspaper had higher quality stories...

Dogged by his opponents' criticism of his own drunken-driving arrests in 1981 and 1991, Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer on Thursday acknowledged that his 20-year-old son Tripp was cited for underage drinking in July.

The alternative Twin Cities newspaper City Pages today posted photos on its website showing Emmer's 20-year-old son Tripp holding beer bottles at a party.

State court records show that in July Tripp Emmer pleaded guilty to an underage drinking petty misdemeanor citation. He paid a $100 fine and $85 in fees.

City Pages doesn't reveal the source of the Facebook photos it said were taken when Tripp Emmer was 19. The paper said the photos have since been removed from Facebook.

Tom Emmer's opponents have already made an issue of his DWI arrests. Emmer has not addressed the arrests in detail, but in a video on his website last spring, he said he had made mistakes and that God had given him a wakeup call.

Tripp Emmer appears in his father's first TV campaign ad.

One of the photos shows Tripp Emmer giving a thumbs-up sign over an apparently unconscious woman whose arms and face have obscene cartoons drawn on them.

This isn't the first time a candidate's family members have been drawn into a campaign.

In 2008, at the GOP National Convention in St. Paul the pregnancy of vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's then 17-year-old daughter Bristol became national news. In the 2000 campaign former GOP Sen. Rod Grams had to respond to the arrest of his son Morgan on a variety of felony charges.

In a statement released late this morning, Emmer did not address the photos but acknowledged his son's citation for underage drinking.

"My son made a serious mistake and has paid the consequences," the statement said. "It was a mistake which many Minnesota families are all too familiar with. Like all the other challenges in life, our family is dealing with our son in this matter with humility, seriousness, and love."


I wonder who the person was that provided all this disgusting info. Funny that this story is released 2 days after an MPR poll had Emmer and Dayton tied 34-34 with 13% going to Horner. Im sure the release of this poll and the release of this story is purely conincidental and has nothing to do with trying to prop Dayton's sinking poll number and kill Emmer's momentum.

Wednesday, September 01, 2010

The lefties are terrorists, not the Tea Party...

yeah yeah I don't mince words. But here is further proof (and a possible book idea) that it is actually the far-left in this country that acts, literally, in a more terroristic manner than anyone on the right, even "hate-groups" and "militias" don't compare to this one whacko right now that has taken hostages at the Discovery institute (same thing as the channel) and here is his Manifesto word for word. Lord knows even in my most pyschotic moments I didn't come close to doing anything like this.

The Discovery Channel MUST broadcast to the world their
commitment to save the planet and to do the following
IMMEDIATELY:
1. The Discovery Channel and it's affiliate channels MUST have daily television programs at prime time
slots based on Daniel Quinn's "My Ishmael" pages 207-212 where solutions to save the planet would be done in the same way as the Industrial Revolution was done, by people building on each other's inventive ideas. Focus must be given on how people can live WITHOUT giving birth to more filthyhuman children since those new additions continue pollution and are pollution. A game show format contest would be in order. Perhaps also forums of leading scientists who understand and agree with the
Malthus-Darwin science and the problem of human overpopulation. Do both. Do all until something WORKS and the natural world starts improving and human civilization building STOPS and is reversed! MAKE IT INTERESTING SO PEOPLE WATCH AND APPLY SOLUTIONS!!!!

2. All programs on Discovery Health-TLC must stop encouraging the birth of any more parasitic human infants and the false heroics behind those actions. In those programs' places, programs encouraging human sterilization and infertility must be pushed. All former pro-birth programs must now push in the direction of stopping human birth, not encouraging it.

3. All programs promoting War and the technology behind those must cease. There is no sense in advertising weapons of mass-destruction anymore. Instead, talk about ways to disassemble civilization and concentrate the message in finding SOLUTIONS to solving global military mechanized conflict. Again, solutions solutions instead of just repeating the same old wars with newer weapons. Also, keep
out the fraudulent peace movements. They are liars and fakes and had no real intention of ending the wars. ALL OF THEM ARE FAKE! On one hand, they claim they want the wars to end, on the other, they are demanding the human population increase. World War II had 2 Billion humans and after that war, the people decided that tripling the population would assure peace. WTF??? STUPIDITY! MORE HUMANS EQUALS MORE WAR!

4. Civilization must be exposed for the filth it is. That, and all its disgusting religious-cultural roots and greed. Broadcast this message until the pollution in the planet is reversed and the human population goes down! This is your obligation. If you think it isn't, then get hell off the planet! Breathe Oil! It is the
moral obligation of everyone living otherwise what good are they??

5. Immigration: Programs must be developed to find solutions to stopping ALL immigration pollution and the anchor baby filth that follows that. Find solutions to stopping it. Call for people in the world to develop solutions to stop it completely and permanently. Find solutions FOR these countries so theystop sending their breeding populations to the US and the world to seek jobs and therefore breed more
unwanted pollution babies. FIND SOLUTIONS FOR THEM TO STOP THEIR HUMAN GROWTH
AND THE EXPORTATION OF THAT DISGUSTING FILTH! (The first world is feeding the
population growth of the Third World and those human families are going to where the food is! They must stop procreating new humans looking for nonexistant jobs!)

6. Find solutions for Global Warming, Automotive pollution, International Trade, factory pollution, and the whole blasted human economy. Find ways so that people don't build more housing pollution which destroys the environment to make way for more human filth! Find solutions so that people stop breedingas well as stopping using Oil in order to REVERSE Global warming and the destruction of the planet!

7. Develop shows that mention the Malthusian sciences about how food production leads to the overpopulation of the Human race. Talk about Evolution. Talk about Malthus and Darwin until it sinks into the stupid people's brains until they get it!!

8. Saving the Planet means saving what's left of the non-human Wildlife by decreasing the Human population. That means stopping the human race from breeding any more disgusting human babies! You're the media, you can reach enough people. It's your resposibility because you reach so many minds!!!

9. Develop shows that will correct and dismantle the dangerous US world economy. Find solutions for their disasterous Ponzi-Casino economy before they take the world to another nuclear war.
(another? when was the first?)

10. Stop all shows glorifying human birthing on all your channels and on TLC. Stop Future Weapons shows or replace the dialogue condemning the people behind these developments so that the shows become exposes rather than advertisements of Arms sales and development!

11. You're also going to find solutions for unemployment and housing. All these unemployed people makes me think the US is headed toward more war.
Humans are the most destructive, filthy, pollutive creatures around and are wrecking what's left of the planet with their false morals and breeding culture.
For every human born, ACRES of wildlife forests must be turned into farmland in order to feed that new addition over the course of 60 to 100 YEARS of that new human's lifespan! THIS IS AT THE EXPENSE OF THE FOREST CREATURES!!!! All human procreation and farming must cease! It is the responsiblity of everyone to preserve the planet they live on by not breeding any more children
who will continue their filthy practices. Children represent FUTURE catastrophic pollution whereas their parents are current pollution. NO MORE BABIES! Population growth is a real crisis. Even one child born in the US will use 30 to a thousand times more resources than a Third World child. It's like a
couple are having 30 babies even though it's just one! If the US goes in this direction maybe other countries will too! Also, war must be halted. Not because it's morally wrong, but because of the catastrophic environmental damage modern weapons cause to other creatures. FIND SOLUTIONS JUST LIKE THE BOOK SAYS!
Humans are supposed to be inventive. INVENT, DAMN YOU!! The world needs TV shows that DEVELOP solutions to the problems that humans are causing, not
stupify the people into destroying the world. Not encouraging them to breed more environmentally harmful humans. Saving the environment and the remaning species diversity of the planet is now your mindset. Nothing is more important than saving them. The Lions, Tigers, Giraffes, Elephants, Froggies, Turtles, Apes,
Raccoons, Beetles, Ants, Sharks, Bears, and, of course, the Squirrels.
The humans? The planet does not need humans. You MUST KNOW the human population is behind all the pollution and problems in the world, and
YET you encourage the exact opposite instead of discouraging human growth and procreation. Surely you MUST ALREADY KNOW this! I want Discovery Communications to broadcast on their channels to the world their new program lineup
and I want proof they are doing so. I want the new shows started by asking the public for inventive solution ideas to save the planet and the remaining wildlife on it. These are the demands and sayings of Lee.


Crazy, I'll add my own editorials later: Here is an article from the local paper

SILVER SPRING, Md. - A gunman has taken "a small number" of people hostage at the Discovery Communications building, Montgomery County Police say. Police are negotiating by phone with the gunman, who is on the first floor area of the building.

"At this point, we are still negotiating with him. The negotiations have been going on for nearly an hour," Montgomery County Police Chief Tom Manger said at around 3:15 p.m. Manger would not confirm the identity of the suspect, or his demands. There are no reports of any injuries. Police say the man burst into the main lobby of the downtown Silver Spring office around 1 p.m. Wednesday.

"He was wearing what appear to be metallic canister devices on his front and back. He also pulled out a handgun and was waving the handgun around," Manger says. The building has been evacuated. Most of the building's 1,900 employees are out, Manger says. Police have not identified the suspect, but say he has "concerns" with the Discovery Corporation. Montgomery County Police Capt. Paul Starks would not say if the man works there now or worked there in the past. WTOP National Security Correspondent J.J. Green reports the suspect's name is James J. Lee and he lives in the area. Green reports Lee is 43 years old and has been involved in protests near the Discovery Communications building for several years. Lee was arrested in 2008 for disorderly conduct and littering on the grounds of the building. At the time, Montgomery County Police said they were concerned with his mental state. Sources tell Green the suspect may have a list of demands on the Internet. Law enforcement sources tell WTOP the suspect may have a propane tank strapped to him and may be carrying a silver pistol. Sources are saying the suspect is allegedly upset about the documentary called "Whale Wars." A daycare with about 100 children inside the building was also evacuated. WTOP's Kate Ryan, who is on the scene, says children were being rolled out in cribs. The children were taken to a nearby McDonald's. Multiple witnesses reported shots were fired, WTOP's Brennan Haselton reports. A person inside the building told The Associated Press says the man had something strapped to his chest and has hostages. The person refused to be identified, saying people inside have been told not to speak to the media. SWAT teams are at the building, which is located on Georgia Avenue in downtown Silver Spring. Bomb technicians are also on the scene, Montgomery County fire department spokesman Capt. Oscar Garcia says. ATF and FBI officials are also on the scene. Faisal Afzal, a systems engineer at Discovery, tells WTOP he was heading back into the building after lunch at about 1 p.m. and was about 20 feet from the door when he heard a street vendor yelling.

"We heard a street vendor yelling, there's a guy with a gun, there's a guy with a gun. He's in the building. And I saw people lying down on the floor at the building. And we just ran away from the building and we heard a couple shots fired," Afzal tells WTOP. "I saw at least four people lying sideways on the floor."

Adam Dolan, a sales director in Discovery's education division, told The Associated Press by phone that he was heading to lunch with a co-worker when he heard there was a situation in the building. He was told to go back up to the top floor, the ninth, and lock the door and turn off the lights. Eventually the workers were herded down a stairwell and told to go home.

"Everyone was very scared, but at the same time ... I think people were calm and collected and responded as one would expect in this situation," said Dolan, 28. When he got to the bottom floor, he saw shattered glass near the company's daycare and suspected it was broken to get the children out. Discovery employees tell WTOP a mass email was sent initially telling employees to shelter in place in their offices because there was a gunman in the lobby. Then, employees were told to move to the side of the building furthest away from the lobby side of the building. Employees were then moved to higher floors before being evacuated by through the stairwells. WTOP's Kate Ryan, who is on the scene, says there is an amazing police presence in the area. "Police have absolutely saturated the area," Ryan says. Authorities descended on the area, and people are being kept away from the main drag of the downtown area where the building is located amid restaurants and shops. Roads in the downtown Silver Spring area are closed. Drivers are being urged to avoid the area, if possible. Georgia Avenue is closed in Montgomery County in both directions from Colesville Road to Wayne Avenue. Traffic entering Silver Spring on northbound Georgia Avenue is being rerouted left on Spring Street and then right onto 16th Street. Southbound traffic can also use 16th Street as an alternate route. DDOT is also encouraging northbound motorists on Georgia Avenue in the District to use Piney Branch Road as an alternate route to bypass the closures on Georgia Avenue. Eastern Avenue, on the District/Montgomery county border, can also be used to get to 16th Street. The situation is not affecting Metro rail service. However, the Metro entrance on Wayne Avenue is closed, WTOP's Adam Tuss, who is on the scene, reports.
Metrobus routes are being affected.St. Michael's School on Wayne Avenue is under lockdown. All students are accounted for, but will not be released until the situation is resolved. Discovery Communications Inc. operates cable and satellite networks in the U.S., including The Discovery Channel, TLC and Animal Planet. Discovery shows include "Cash Cab" and "Man vs. Wild," and TLC airs "American Chopper" and "Kate Plus Eight." Animal Planet also airs the controversial series "Whale Wars," about attempts by environmentalists to disrupt the Japanese whaling industry.


May the police take him out swiftly so he can face his maker. Perferably before dinner.

Monday, August 30, 2010

SOTW #19 Linkin Park - The Catalyst (Official HD)

For those of wyou who don't know this is my favorite band. Not a great song but a good one for them, new sound, sort of industrial like NIN but not as harsh. I wish they would back off politics, but these lyrics can be interpreted in many ways so it could be pro-military or pro-US depending on how you look at it but it is a good, almost great, song.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Failblog/FML friday

Funny Facebook Fails
Funny Facebook Fails
Funny Facebook Fails
Funny Facebook Fails
Funny Facebook Fails




Today, I was teaching a woodshop class. We were using power tools, including drills, and pieces of pine wood. While helping a kid to hold a piece to practice drilling, he went too far forward with the drill. It went through my hand. FML

Today, in the middle of an exam, I was escorted out by the campus police due to suspicion of a concealed weapon. The officers couldn't stop laughing for 20 minutes when they found out the weapon was metal knitting needles. FML

Today, completely excited, I told my mom about this guy from high school, that I had really liked and who had found me on Facebook. He said he regretted not asking me out in high school and offered to fly me out to visit him. Her response? "Has he seen what you look like now?" FML

Today, I was locked inside my dorm room. Yeah, inside. How? Some of my floormates decided to stick pennies in the door frame, which jammed the handle. I was stuck inside my room and had to pee really bad. I couldn't call an RA to get me out either. Why? I am the RA. FML

Today, I found out that my sister who is 16 years older than me is actually my biological mother. She and my parents decided it was best that I didn't know who my real mother was, and to be raised by my grandparents as their child. I've always hated my sister. FML

Today, a buttmunch customer brought in $7 worth of pennies I had to count and roll. As I was putting them in the deposite box at the end of my shift, I fumbled and dropped the rolls. All but one broke, spilling their contents on the floor. FML

Today, I was in a bad mood after being stuck in traffic for 2 hours and late for work. I was walking to my building when I saw a 100 dollar note flying my way. A man called after me for it, but being selfish I took the note in my pocket as a little reward. That man was my boss. Yes, I'm fired. FML

Today, my boyfriend called me and told me he wanted me to stay the night. I decided to wear my sexiest outfit for him so I put on my kinky nurse outfit and drove over to his house. I let myself in his front door, to which I found 40 of my closest friends staring at me for my surprise birthday party. FML

Today, I had to pretend to give birth in a play. I wanted to make it a realistic as possible but ended up crapping myself on stage by accident. FML

Today, my mom said I was the worst of her 5 children. My IQ is 130, an honor student, I don't smoke, I don't drink alcohol, or do drugs. I'm the "worst" because I don't go to church every Sunday. FML

Today, I was at soccer camp and was hit in the face with a ball. I walked to the nurse and asked for a napkin or tissues to help stop the bleeding. The only thing she could come up with? A tampon. I spent 20 minutes with a tampon shoved up my nostril in front of my laughing teammates. FML

Today, I locked my keys in my car. My spare keys are 45 minutes away in my dorm room. My dorm room keys are attached to my car keys locked in my car. Security said they would let me in as long as I had my school ID. It's on my keychain. FML

Today, I was playing FarmTown and got into a fight with a 14 year old boy. I threatened him with physical violence, and he reported me. I'm 23 years old and got banned from a virtual farming game for threatening children. FML

Today, I had a Biochemistry quiz. I studied all night but took a nap to get some rest because my quiz was in the morning. I woke up at 10 feeling very confident. My quiz was at 9. FML

Today, I realized that my virus protection program now has a virus. FML